興業證券:上調騰訊(0700.HK)目標價至443港元 升評級至“買入”
興業證券發佈報告稱,基於DCF模型,將騰訊控股(0700.HK)目標價上調至443港元(原目標價:399.8港元),對應2019/2020年NonGAAP的EPS分別為38/31倍PE,上調至“買入”評級。
該行稱,預計2019/2020年手遊將增長20%/31.8%,該行判斷手遊於春節的時長增長將帶動騰訊系使用時長的回升,核心手遊在1月流水和DAU將達新高,同時看好海外遊戲的發力,相關業務營收佔比預計升至20%以上。
在金融科技方面,該行認為,三方支付的競爭格局未來將維持穩定,用户與商户補貼將逐步退坡而改善利潤率。同時,高利潤率的衍生金融業務將持續驅動中長期利潤增長,2020年分部利潤率將增長約2pcts,此外備付金利息收入的恢復有望提升近2%的分部收入。
該行表示,預計19Q4社交廣告將延續強勢,隨着廣告庫存的增加疊加微信的流量優勢,該行繼續看好社交廣告逐步釋放。此外該行認為騰訊在以遠程辦公等非泛娛樂場景的開源將繼續鞏固騰訊系用户粘性,預計騰訊系用户時長依舊有上升空間。
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