中金:建議逢低吸納物管板塊優質個股 推薦碧桂園服務(6098.HK)等
中金公司發佈報告稱,受公共衞生事件影響,股票市場持續承壓,物業管理板塊也顯著回調,但認為物業管理公司收入和盈利受公共衞生事件影響微弱、同時業務端可能受益,建議投資者逢低吸納優質個股,推薦碧桂園服務(6098.HK)、中海物業(2669.HK)、永升生活服務(1995.HK)、雅生活服務(3319.HK),以及建議關注保利物業(6049.HK),評級全部為“跑贏行業”。
該行稱,物業費收入在經濟波動中具有穩定性,不受消費偏好、投資需求、進出口波動等因素影響;成本方面,公共衞生事件期間的額外成本相對有限;同時,考慮到公共衞生事件帶來的業主出行減少等影響,不排除社區增值服務需求提升的可能性。
該行認為,物業管理板塊中期增長確定性強、長期空間廣闊。中期保守預計2021-2023年能夠實現約25%-35%的確定性三年年化盈利複合增長;長期板塊有望持續質量增長,預計板塊絕大部分標的2019年業績將符合或超出市場預期,也預計2019年該行推薦標的盈利增速為24%-113%,其中碧桂園服務和雅生活服務有望業績超預期。
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