大和:內地酒店股估值吸引但肺炎疫情不明朗 行業評級“中性”
大和發表研究報告表示,內地整體旅客量於農歷新年期間下跌7.4%,武漢肺炎爆發無疑是雪上加霜,按沙士時期的判斷,即使武漢肺炎疫情受控,亦至少需要3至4個月時間,內地酒店業每間可售客房收入(RevPAR)才可穩定下來,雖然內地酒店股估值吸引,但肺炎疫情帶來不明朗因素,該行認為市場對內地酒店業看法過份樂觀,維持行業“中性”評級。
該行指,自本月初武漢肺炎爆發,導致中國酒店業成為重災區,而香格里拉(亞洲)(0069.HK)、錦江資本(2006.HK)股價分別下跌12%及18%,由於現時仍未有跡象顯示疫情完全受控,加上若被世衞組織列為國際關注的突發公共衞生事件(PHEIC)將會令旅遊需求減少,或有進一步的下跌風險,故不相信現時是抄底的時機。
大和又指,雖然武漢肺炎的致命性較沙士低,但其影響或較沙士持續更長時間,預期今年內地酒店業RevPAR下跌3-4%,之前估計為持平,維持香格里拉(亞洲)及錦江資本“持有”評級。
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