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大新:料今年港股26,000点至31,000点上落 楼价最多跌10%
阿思达克 01-16 16:49

大新银行(02356.HK)经济师温嘉炜表示,本港去年面对社会事件,资产市场表现仍然稳定,股市及楼市未有出现明显的抛售浪潮,随着港股估值偏低,加上近日环球资产市场气氛改善,预计资金将会回流港股,今年恒指将於介乎26,000点至31,000点之间上落,预计第一季可见31,000点。

他并预计,今年楼价将跌5%至10%,主要由於预计社会事件影响持续,失业率将会继续温和上升,楼价调整将会集中於上半年。本港去年9月至11月失业率3.2%,温嘉炜预计今年失业率平均水平3.5%,部份月份更有机会见4%。

温嘉炜并预计,本港今年经济有机会续跌1.7%,至下半年季度或录正增长,明年经济增长预测2.2%。 ~

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