瑞信:降金風科技(2208.HK)評級至“中性” 目標價下調至9.5港元
瑞信發表的研究報告指,將金風科技(02208.HK) H股評級由“跑贏大市”降至“中性”,並將其A股評級由“中性”降至“跑輸大市”,預期趕急訂單將很快完結,加上2020年後電網平價將要求渦輪機降價,故料2020年訂單量及渦輪機價格將現下跌。
該行指出2020年後建的新風電場均無補貼,而2018年及2019年首三季全行業訂單規模急增至84吉瓦,故該行估計2020年的新訂單或會減慢甚至減少。而在「平價上網」項目方面,該行按項目內部回報率7%計算,估計渦輪機成本要降至每千瓦3,300至3,700元人民幣,而現時平均銷售單價為每千瓦4,000元人民幣,故在價格上將面對很大的下行壓力。
瑞信將金風2019至2021年盈利預測下調18%至42.5%,主要考慮渦輪機利潤將減少等因素,以現金流折現率計,H股目標價由13.5港元降至9.5港元。
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