中金:料騰訊(0700.HK)可受惠增量利息收入貢獻 維持“中性”評級
中金引述傳媒報道稱,人行決定將第三方支付機構的客户備付金以0.35%的年利率按季結息,並從中計提10%作為非銀行支付行業保障基金。該行指出備付金利息曾是騰訊金融科技板塊重要的收入和利潤來源之一,中金估計2017年備付金利息收入約60-70億元人民幣(下同),貢獻了當年年騰訊金融科技板塊的20%的收入。為了整頓第三方支付機構違規挪用客户備付金的現象,2017年4月人行決定將第三方支付機構客户備付金全面集中存管到央行,由於央行對這部分資金不支付利息,備付金利息收入在騰訊金融科技收入的佔比逐步下降,該行測算由2018年首季度的15%下滑至2019年首季度的3%。
該行估計騰訊(00700.HK)將受惠新政,惟新增貢獻的收入和盈利或較此前顯着下降。據央行數據顯示,截至2019年11月,第三方支付行業客户備付金規模約為1.4萬億元,同樣假設騰訊的佔比約為50-60%,根據0.35%的利率,該行估計客户備付金利息新政將為騰訊帶來全年約25億元增量利息收入,較之前大幅下降。
中金指出從另一個角度看,騰訊也在積極推廣自身理財業務,例如零錢通等,故亦限制了其備付金利息收入未來的增長空間。在公司層面,該行預計增量利息收入約佔2020年收入和非通用準則運營利潤預測的0.5%和1.5%。由於央行尚未公佈新政具體實施時間,中金暫維持對騰訊“中性”評級,目標價342港元。
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