粵豐環保(01381.HK)：與國企的合作更上一層樓，重申“買入”評級，目標價5.15港元
機構：中泰證券
評級：買入
目標價：5.15港元
上實環境與寶武環科及粵豐環保簽署框架協議
上實控股(363HK；未評級)旗下的上海實業環境(807HK；未評級)昨日宣佈，已經於2019年12月29日與寶武環科(中國寶武鋼鐵集團旗下的環保企業)及粵豐環保簽署框架協議。
該框架協議的要點包括：(一)三方將依託各自資源優勢及長處，在環保科技產業開展合作，將正在建設中的上海寶山項目打造為國內標杆、國際超一流的垃圾焚燒項目；(二)三方將在南京、武漢、馬鞍山、重慶等地鋼鐵工業園區轉型發展中積極探索，打造更多高標準的現代化環保項目；(三)響應國家一帶一路倡議，積極佈局海外。
與兩大國企集團合作探索全國市場
粵豐環保與上海實業環境的合營公司於去年與寶武環科按60:40股權比例成立另一合營公司。後者合營公司於去年11月宣佈投資及開發上述提及的上海寶山項目。根據我們的瞭解，該項目位於寶武集團的其中一處已關閉的鋼鐵廠房廠址。我們相信，該框架協議提及的上海以外之國內發展也將是選取寶武集團的一些已停產廠址。由於發展垃圾焚燒業務既帶來舊鋼鐵工業園區轉型，更可配合國家環保政策需要，我們因此預期相關地方政府將十分支持上述三方開拓環保項目。
上調目標價，重申“買入”評級
我們維持2019-2021年盈利預測，但預期上述三方的合作可提升粵豐環保更長遠的發展。調整了財務模型後，我們將由貼現現金流分析(DCF)推算的目標價由5.00港元上調至5.15港元，這對應11.8倍2020年市盈率和38.1%上升空間。重申“買入”評級。
風險提示：(一)項目開發延誤；(二)應收賬款風險；(三)併網電價大幅下跌。
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