平安好醫生(1833.HK):構建醫療健康門户,私家醫生髮力,AI助力,首次給予“買入”評級,目標價 64.5 港元
機構:廣發證券
評級:買入
目標價:64.5 港元
核心觀點:
大健康產業為十萬億級市場,互聯網醫療健康處於起步階段,發展前景 廣闊;政策支持互聯網+醫療健康發展,相關細則逐漸落地。平安好醫生 位居互聯網醫療 APP 用户及時長首位,大幅領先於競爭對手。根據 Trustdata 數據,平安好醫生 19Q1 新增用户佔全行業 6 成,19Q3 佔據 7 成主流醫療健康 APP 用户時長。
平安好醫生致力於構建醫療健康生態系統中的一站式門户,致力於讓每 個家庭擁有一個家庭醫生,讓每個人擁有一份電子健康檔案,讓每個人 擁有一個健康管理計劃。截至 19H1 註冊用户數 2.89 億人(YoY+9.1%), 在線醫療累計付費會員 144 萬人(YoY+38.0%), 6 月 MAU 達 6,270 萬 人,日諮詢量 65.6 萬人次。通過自有醫療團隊,輔以外部醫生網絡,AI 輔助支持,提供 24/7 的諮詢服務,合作醫療資源網絡不斷擴大。
形成涵蓋在線醫療、消費型醫療、健康商城、健康管理與互動的四大業務 板塊。在線醫療:初步積累豐富的用户羣,處於商業變現快速增長階段, 業務從向平安集團保險投保人提供服務,逐漸向外部的保險機構、外部企 業拓展,就醫 360 及新產品私家醫生驅動收入快速增長。消費型醫療: 主要提供體檢等服務,通過自有團隊及平安個險銷售代理獲客。健康商 城:SKU 增長驅動 GMV 快速增長,自營+平台模式雙驅動。健康管理與 互動:廣告業務為主,毛利率超 80%。
收入增長迅速,虧損逐漸收窄。2016~2018 年及 2019H1 總營收分別為 6.02 億元(+115.8% YoY)、 18.68 億元(+210.6% YoY)、 33.38 億元 (+78.7% YoY)和 22.73 億元(+102.4% YoY),歸母淨利潤分別為-7.58 億元、-10.02 億元、-9.12 億元和-2.73 億元,綜合毛利率分別為 42.2%、 32.8%、27.3%和 21.6%。
首次給予“買入”評級。預測公司 2019~2021 年收入分別為 48.97 億元 (+46.7%)、 68.82 億元(+40.5%)、 96.44 億元(+40.1%),歸母淨利 潤分別為-8.09 億元、-6.76 億元、-3.16 億元。公司處於互聯網醫療健康 行業領先地位,目前處於跑馬圈地獲取用户階段,隨着商業化逐步提升, 收入快速增長,費用率不斷降低,虧損逐漸收窄。給予 2020 年 9 倍 PS, 對應合理價值 64.5 港元/股,結合 DCF 估值,對應合理價值 65.51 港元 /股,基於穩健原則,選取較低值 64.5 港元/股作為合理價值參考。
風險提示:付費會員數增長不及預期;智能輔助診療研發進展受阻;可能 發生醫療事故,面臨鉅額理賠和公司聲譽損壞;相關政策法規不確定性。
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