郵儲銀行(1658.HK)A股上市快評:A股上市後有望納入主要指數,維持“買入”評級
機構:國信證券
評級:買入
事項:
郵儲銀行公告:中國郵政儲蓄銀行股份有限公司股票將於2019年12月10日在上海證券交易所上市。
評論:
郵儲銀行A股上市後有望納入主要指數目前A股市場被動指數型基金跟蹤較多,且與銀行相關性大的指數是三個,即滬深300、上證50和中證銀行指數。根據各指數編制規則,郵儲銀行不適用快速進入指數的條件,因此要在指數樣本定期調整時獲得納入指數的資格。前述三個指數均在明年6月15日進行樣本調整。
郵儲銀行A股發行總市值(A股總股本×發行價)達到3649億元(不考慮超額配售選擇權行使),在按最新收盤價計算的全部A股中處於第16位。我們認為考慮到郵儲銀行較大的體量,其在樣本調整時大概率將納入前述主要指數。
納入指數將會帶來增量資金配置
我們認為,一旦郵儲銀行被納入被動型基金跟蹤的主要指數,將帶來增量資金配置,從而有助於提高股價的穩定性。此外,被動型基金以跟蹤指數為主,因此持倉期限更長,長期來看也有助於降低郵儲銀行股價的波動性。
零售優勢突出,對公仍有潛力,資產質量優異郵儲銀行網點數量在全部銀行中居首,憑藉深入社區、深入鄉鎮的網點,郵儲銀行獲得了大量低成本的零售存款,負債優勢顯著。這體現在兩方面,一是郵儲銀行存款成本是全國性銀行中最低的,二是郵儲銀行存款不僅成本低,而且數量大,其全部負債中超過95%都是存款,負債結構遠好於其他銀行。對公業務方面,由於郵儲銀行對公業務起步較晚,我們認為其仍有較大的發展空間,尤其考慮到郵儲銀行的資金成本低,因此長期來看,在對優質企業客户的競爭方面具有天然優勢。
此外,從最新披露的資產質量主要指標來看,郵儲銀行不良率、關注率、逾期率、不良生成率等均低於同期的其他大型商業銀行,資產質量優異。
投資建議
公司基本面亮眼,當前估值處於較低水平,我們維持其“買入”評級。
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