碧桂園服務(6098.HK)：公司具備新增長動力，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點
碧桂園銷售以外，公司仍具備增長動力。公司管理項目中大部分為碧桂園開發項目。根據克而瑞數據，碧桂園2019年前11個月操盤銷售面積與去年相比增長在10-15%區間，考慮到交付週期和物業管理公司在管面積增長率為當期新交付和過往累計交付的比值的特點，公司的在管面積增長率有可能面臨邊際性下降。我們認為第三方項目、社區增值服務、城市服務、三供一業項目和設施管理業務能成為公司新的增長動力。
公司高新技術企業税收優惠將在2021年利潤表體現。公司高新技術企業税收優惠生效期間為2017-2019年。無論公司下一期申請是否能獲批，其2020年賬面利潤表所得税率將為25%。如果申請獲批，2021年上半年將確認對2020年多繳納部分的返還。因此公司2020-2022年賬面所得税情況將類似於2017-2019年情況。我們的預測基於公司所得税優惠能夠在2020-2022年維持的假設。
公司增長紮實，依然是我們的行業首選，維持買入評級。公司儲備面積約是收費面積的1.69倍，此項指標在上市大型物業管理公司中最高，顯示出公司具備可預見的收費面積成長性。社區增值服務、城市服務、三供一業項目和設施管理業務能成為公司新的增長動力，使公司在未來3-5年內維持超過碧桂園銷售驅動的增長速度。我們維持其2019-2021年EPS為0.61、0.84和1.07人民幣元/股的預測。當前價格對應2019-2021年的P/E分別為37.52、27.48和21.52倍。考慮到近期行業的估值提升和公司高於同行的預期淨利潤增長率，我們認為公司當前估值仍有擴張空間。我們上調合理估值至40倍2020年PE倍數，對應合理價值37.55HKD/股，維持買入評級。
風險提示：重大安全事故；地產銷售波動；無法維持税收優惠。
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