花旗:料煤股明年迎來現金流改善等催化劑 升中煤(1898.HK)評級至“買入”
花旗發表中資煤炭股明年報告表示,自2017年煤炭股估值隨着煤價回落遭下調,5500Kcal//kg 長期動力煤合同價格目前已接近每噸535元人民幣,處發改委合適的價格範圍(每噸500至570人民幣),相信內地政府目前會協助穩着煤價,指行業下行週期因素已經反映在股價之上。
該行估計,中資煤炭股未來盈利透明度良好,隨着煤價回穩環境下,相關公司現金流亦會回穩,兼且行業會迎來國企改革,將聚焦派息及股權激勵,相信將可成中資煤炭股明年催化劑。

花旗表示,行業首選中國神華(01088.HK) ,維持對其“買入”投資評級,但輕微下調對其目標價,由原來21.7元降至21.4元,此相當明年預測市盈率9.5倍,對其2020年及2021年純利預測各下調8.3%及11.7%,反映其自產煤平均售價較低等因素,但相信公司未來可受惠國企改革。
該行同時將中煤(01898.HK)投資評級,由“中性”上調至“買入”,對其目標價由原來3.9港元,輕微下調至3.6港元,此相當明年市盈率7.7倍,並決定調高對中煤於預測2019年至2021年純利預測各28%、17%及12%,至62億、54億及51億人民幣,反映旗下自產煤的銷量強勁。該行料中煤於今年第四季自產煤每噸毛利為64元人民幣,按年跌14%。
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