植耀辉: 港股年底恐难「翻身」 餐饮股未届吸纳时
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，不经不觉2019年仅余下不足一个月时间，截至昨日(3日)为止恒指全年累升约546点或2.1%，继续大幅跑输中美股市，年底前或有机会出现资金追落後情况。但即使有所反弹，2020年港股前景仍未许乐观，皆因中美贸易谈判之影响仍在，而且环球经济状况面对的挑战亦不少，加上本地因素，因此明年港股恐怕纵有升幅亦难大升，反而若现有情况进一步恶化，恒指未来「破底」的机会仍高。
今日(4日)跟大家剖析本地三间餐饮股表现。大家乐(00341.HK)、大快活(00052.HK)及翠华(01314.HK)已陆续公布截至9月底止之上半年业绩。基本上，三间公司业绩表现均欠理想，大家乐及大快活股东应占溢利分别倒退34.5%及43.1%，翠华更是盈转亏。至於业绩转差，总结三间企业的原因，可大致归咎於以下几个因素，即市场环境不利因素影响；经营成本如租金及工资成本增加；以及会计准则改变。
面对经济前景不明，作为主要成本之租金以至劳工开支未来有相当大机会回落，对饮食行业而言本应属利好，然而顾客减少之影响仍属致命性，毕竟做餐饮业谁人不想「客似云来」?因此若本地事件持续，经营环境依然面对相当多变数。另一方面，三间公司亦打算透过「开源」以弥补香港收入表现，大家乐及大快活继续加强拓展内地发展，翠华则打算开拓东南亚市场。相关部署并无不妥，但内地餐饮业竞争激烈，北上发展亦要面对地区差异口味不同的情况。所以虽然北上发展属必然之举，只是面对的挑战亦不少。
最後是投资价值方面。年初至今三者股价走势除大家乐仍录得升幅(4.3%)外，其余两者跌幅显着(大快活跌17.5%，翠华则大跌41%)。而在中期业绩公布後，大家乐仍能维持派息0.19港仙，大快活则有所减少(派息比率则由47.1%提高至51.9%)，翠华则索性取消派发中期息。由於短期形势未见乐观，笔者相信股价纵离底不远，但却难有明显转势，因此建议暂保持观望会较适合。
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