植耀輝: 港股年底恐難「翻身」 餐飲股未屆吸納時
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，不經不覺2019年僅餘下不足一個月時間，截至昨日(3日)為止恆指全年累升約546點或2.1%，繼續大幅跑輸中美股市，年底前或有機會出現資金追落後情況。但即使有所反彈，2020年港股前景仍未許樂觀，皆因中美貿易談判之影響仍在，而且環球經濟狀況面對的挑戰亦不少，加上本地因素，因此明年港股恐怕縱有升幅亦難大升，反而若現有情況進一步惡化，恆指未來「破底」的機會仍高。
今日(4日)跟大家剖析本地三間餐飲股表現。大家樂(00341.HK)、大快活(00052.HK)及翠華(01314.HK)已陸續公布截至9月底止之上半年業績。基本上，三間公司業績表現均欠理想，大家樂及大快活股東應佔溢利分別倒退34.5%及43.1%，翠華更是盈轉虧。至於業績轉差，總結三間企業的原因，可大致歸咎於以下幾個因素，即市場環境不利因素影響；經營成本如租金及工資成本增加；以及會計準則改變。
面對經濟前景不明，作為主要成本之租金以至勞工開支未來有相當大機會回落，對飲食行業而言本應屬利好，然而顧客減少之影響仍屬致命性，畢竟做餐飲業誰人不想「客似雲來」?因此若本地事件持續，經營環境依然面對相當多變數。另一方面，三間公司亦打算透過「開源」以彌補香港收入表現，大家樂及大快活繼續加強拓展內地發展，翠華則打算開拓東南亞市場。相關部署並無不妥，但內地餐飲業競爭激烈，北上發展亦要面對地區差異口味不同的情況。所以雖然北上發展屬必然之舉，只是面對的挑戰亦不少。
最後是投資價值方面。年初至今三者股價走勢除大家樂仍錄得升幅(4.3%)外，其餘兩者跌幅顯著(大快活跌17.5%，翠華則大跌41%)。而在中期業績公布後，大家樂仍能維持派息0.19港仙，大快活則有所減少(派息比率則由47.1%提高至51.9%)，翠華則索性取消派發中期息。由於短期形勢未見樂觀，筆者相信股價縱離底不遠，但卻難有明顯轉勢，因此建議暫保持觀望會較適合。
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