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李寧(02331.HK)重大事件快評:Q4基本面仍具增長韌性,持續享優質賽道龍頭紅利,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯 11-27 15:36

結構:國信證券

評級:買入

事項:

11月22日,我們組織了與李寧公司的電話會議交流,與公司就近期經營狀況,重要業務變化以及中長期戰略方向等情況進行了深入溝通。

國信觀點:總體來看,我們認為1)預計公司四季度以來終端銷售情況良好,再次驗證強勁的收入增長態勢,同時盈利能力仍將持續提升,推動業績高速增長;2)新任聯席行政總裁具有深厚的專業經驗和華人背景,有能力帶領公司在關鍵的零售運營和供應鏈能力方面邁上新台階;3)公司堅持以專業性為根本,近期仍將以國內領先的功能性科技開發優質產品,並在專業體育資源方面大力投入不斷塑造清晰運動品牌形象。長期來看,我們認為公司通過業務變革與升級的成效積累,不僅在近一兩年內快速實現了全面的復甦,同時也獲得了很強的持續成長能力,產品端功能性和時尚性兩方面的提升質變既符合國際上已充分驗證的專業為本的發展路徑,又契合了年輕消費者羣體的需求方向,而更強零售運營能力和靈活供應鏈的建設將不斷促進經營效率的提升。綜合而言,公司作為運動鞋服領域的本土龍頭,在賽道高度景氣,競爭格局良好且已基本穩定的情況下,有望持續享受紅利實現國產崛起。維持公司19-21年EPS為0.64/0.79/1.05元/股(人民幣),當前股價對應PE36/29/22倍,維持“買入”評級。

評論:

第四季度以來終端銷售情況保持良好,再次驗證強勁的收入增長態勢,盈利能力仍將持續提升根據我們調研瞭解,公司四季度初至11月上半月,公司批發渠道零售額增長仍有達30%低段,直營渠道20%低段,電商方面與上季度55%左右的增速相當,其中雙11天貓旗艦店和全網同比增長都超50%,在去年高基數下仍然取得相對高增長,總體來看保持良好銷售狀況。今年以來,公司終端零售額在同店店效的帶動下獲得了強勁增長,最終推動收入和業績端的高速增長,目前來看全年高增速情況基本明晰,持續旺盛的成長動能再獲確認。

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