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李寧(02331.HK):揚長補短,李寧繼續揚帆遠航,,維持“強烈推薦”評級
格隆匯 11-26 09:42

機構:東興證券

評級:強烈推薦

報告摘要:

李寧自2018年登上國際時裝週以來,收入端和盈利端改善顯著。2018年營業收入和扣非歸母淨利潤分別增長18.41%、39.98%;2019年繼續提速,上半年增速分別達到32.63%、200.68%。我們認為公司通過揚長補短,未來收入增長和盈利改善持續進行,本篇報告將從產品、品牌、渠道和供應鏈四個維度去探究。我們認為:產品設計和品牌塑造是公司的核心能力,亦是李寧的強項,2018年以來,李寧通過技術加速創新和“國潮”發力,進一步強化了這一核心能力;渠道管理和供應鏈建設是公司的基礎能力,是李寧待提高之處,2012年公司推出零售改革,2018年這一模式全面顯效,為公司發展提供後方保障。

覆盤:曲折發展30年,迎來新生。公司於1990年成立,隨行業崛起;2001-2010年十年黃金髮展,穩居國內品牌第一;2011-2014年陷入危機,零售改革起步但收效甚微;2015年至今,公司全面落實零售改革,並在2018年藉助“國潮”爆發。收復失地、盈利提升仍是目前的主調。

揚長:揚產品與品牌之長。國產品牌產品定位主打性價比,李寧發展之初憑藉較高的品牌力,產品均價高於其他品牌。2010年公司在產品力未明顯提升的情況下,貿然採取年輕化和高端化戰略,導致戰略失誤。2015年公司迴歸研發與設計,憑藉產品力的提升,在高端市場搶佔一席之地。2018年通過時裝週推出中國李寧系列,成功完成品牌重塑。公司產品的專業性與時尚性為品牌發展提供基礎,多元化營銷進一步擴大品牌影響力。

補短:補渠道與供應鏈之短。李寧創立之初以品牌驅動,渠道和生產一直採取外包模式,在渠道管理和供應鏈管理方面較為薄弱。2012年公司開始推行“零售業務模式”,對渠道和供應鏈進行改革,方向正確但執行有失。2015年在細化框架、加強執行的基礎上,公司渠道、供應鏈管理步入正軌。渠道管理標準化、供應鏈依需建設,公司的基礎能力在不斷提升中。

盈利預測及投資建議:預計公司2019-2021年實現營業收入139.48、179.35、220.7億元,歸母淨利潤分別為14.58、19.06、25.15億元,對應EPS分別為0.59、0.77、1.02元,維持“強烈推薦”。

風險提示:1、宏觀經濟壓力下服裝行業繼續承壓;2、公司管理層出現重大變化。3、公司新品牌發展受阻。

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