中國宏橋(01378.HK)：全球領先鋁生產商，成本優勢顯著，給予“增持”評級，目標價5.14港元
機構：西南證券
評級：增持
目標價：5.14港元
投資要點
全球領先一體化鋁生產商。公司現有鋁產能為646萬噸，2018年鋁產量在全球居首位。2017年下半年，因政府推進鋁行業供給側改革，公司關停268萬噸鋁產能。受國家鋁產能指標限制，公司近兩年無新增產能。公司2018年全年鋁產品產量為636.5萬噸，產能利用率達到98.5%。2019年H1公司鋁產品產量達到286萬噸，同比減少10.3%。
公司創始人張士平之子張波掌舵宏橋系的鋁產業。張波於2006年加入中國宏橋集團有限公司，並且自2006年11月至今擔任魏橋鋁電總經理兼董事長，在鋁行業積累了13年經驗，對鋁行業十分熟悉，擁有豐富的管理經驗。2019年5月張波接任公司董事會主席。
氧化鋁和電力自給率高，成本優勢顯著。公司現有氧化鋁1400萬噸產能，氧化鋁自給率達到89.2%。公司主要通過自備電站提供電力供應，電力自給率為78.2%，2019年煤價回落，公司上半年的電力成本為0.264元/kWh，較去年大幅下降。2018年公司的電解鋁成本為10222元/噸，而根據安泰科的數據，全行業的平均電解鋁成本為12840元/噸，公司在行業內擁有成本優勢。
應對自備電廠政策風險，鋁產能或向雲南轉移。公司尚未收到自備電廠企業徵收政策性交叉補貼等費用的具體實施通知，如果相關政策落實將會對公司業績產生重大影響。為應對自備電廠的面臨的政策風險，公司計劃分兩期向雲南省文山縣轉移200萬噸的電解鋁產能。雲南省擁有豐富的水電資源，根據雲南省發改委相關政策，公司若轉移鋁產能入滇，可享受電價優惠政策。
盈利預測與評級。結合對標公司的估值和目前的業務佈局，給予公司2019年6.5倍PE，對應市值396.24億元，對應目標價5.14港元。我們看好公司當前的煤價下跌帶來的成本優勢，以及今後產能向雲南轉移的公司佈局調整，首次覆蓋給予“增持”評級。
風險提示：宏觀經濟運行放緩，鋁需求大幅下降，自備電廠相關政策變化。
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