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協鑫新能源(00451.HK):好夢落空,華能集團中止洽購公司控股權,給予“中性”評級
格隆匯 11-25 09:09

機構:中泰證券

評級:中性

保利協鑫能源(3800HK;未評級)於今年6月份表示,有可能向主要國企華能集團出售其持有協鑫新能源的51.0%股權(97.3億股本)。市場當時期望,華能集團可透過資產注入和提供融資方便/轉移,有效大幅降低協鑫新能源的高負債率。經過多月的商討後,保利協鑫能源及協鑫新能源近日宣佈華能集團中止洽購控股權。相反,協鑫新能源就向華能集團出售個別光伏發電項目制定合作框架協議,詳情待定。

市場憂慮負債情況不良好將會加劇

公司昨日在投資人電話會議上表示,華能集團中止洽購控股權的主要原因是相關政府機構審批將會十分需時;相反,項目權益轉讓等相對較簡單交易所需的審批時間將會較短。我們認為股權買賣雙方理應在洽談前已經考慮到相關政策風險,市場未必接受這個解釋。再加上資產出售仍未落實,我們預期市場憂慮公司負債情況不良好將會加劇。

下調評級至“中性”

我們維持盈利預測,但是提高我們對公司的貼現現金流(DCF)分析模型中之風險溢價假設,並因此將目標價由0.32港元降低34.3%至0.21港元。這對應3.7倍2020年市盈率和4.5%下行空間。我們相應地將評級由“增持”下調至“中性”。

風險提示:(一)項目開發延誤、(二)應收賬款風險、(三)併網電價大幅下跌。

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