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騰訊控股(0700.HK):增長新動能,維持“增持”評級,目標價395港幣
格隆匯 11-19 15:58

機構:申萬宏源

評級:增持

目標價:395港幣

騰訊控股公佈2019年第三季度收入為972億元(同比增長20.6%),non-GAAP淨利潤為244億元(同比增長23.3%),略低於市場預期。《王者榮耀》的穩健表現以及新遊戲上線帶動手遊第三季度延續高增長,遊戲收入貢獻佔比超10%的海外市場值得進一步重視。受益於財富管理業務高景氣度和企業客户基礎擴大,金融科技及雲業務保持高速增長。我們看到受宏觀因素影響和內容排期的不確定性,媒體廣告增速低於預期。我們將19年攤薄EPS預測從9.92元人民幣下調至9.89元人民幣(同比增長20.2%);將20年攤薄EPS預測從11.89元人民幣上調至12.46元人民幣(同比增長26.0%),將21年攤薄EPS預測從13.56元人民幣上調至14.85元人民幣(同比增長19.2%)。我們將目標價由404港幣下調至395港幣,基於23.7%的上升空間,我們維持增持評級。

遊戲基本符合預期。騰訊3Q19端遊收入同比下滑7.3%,手遊收入同比上升26.1%。《地下城與勇士》收入下滑使得端遊增長承壓市場已有預期,《英雄聯盟》的自走棋模式《雲頂之弈》增加了用户時長和收入,展現了較強的增長潛力。手遊方面,《王者榮耀》季票購買滲透率在提升,《和平精英》雖然貢獻了整季流水但仍處於確認遞延收入的初期階段。海外《PUBGMobile》和《CallofDutyMobile》的亮眼表現,以及明年《英雄聯盟手遊》的上線,有望使海外市場成為新的增長驅動力。媒體廣告承壓。騰訊3Q19廣告收入同比增長13.0%,其中媒體廣告收入同比下滑28.3%,社交廣告收入同比增長31.9%。我們把社交廣告增長歸功於微信朋友圈的庫存增加、移動廣告聯盟收入上升以及小程序廣告收入的增長。雖然移動端會員數創新高,超過1億,且視頻日活用户和時長保持穩定,但內容排播的不確定性導致視頻招商廣告收入下跌。但我們展望年底到明年,隨着各大視頻網站內容排播逐步恢復正常,監管邊際改善信號明確,期待明年媒體廣告能走出低谷。

金融科技利潤彈性較大。騰訊整體毛利率43.7%,同比下滑0.3個百分點。受益於快速增長的理財類業務和商業支付,金融科技和雲業務在收入規模快速增長的同時,毛利率達到27.7%(同比提升2.6個百分點),如果剔除存款備付金上繳帶來的一次性影響,實際收入和毛利率會更高。本季度公司銷售費用率同比下降,主要由於削減營銷費用和補貼支出。我們認為,後續隨着監管邊際改善,視頻的內容投入將增加,媒體廣告毛利率預計下滑。自研遊戲產能釋放和合作開發遊戲(如《Call of Duty Mobile》)收入增加有望推動增值服務毛利率回暖。

維持增持評級。基於新遊戲的發佈和金融業務的迅速擴張,我們預計騰訊的基本面將在2020改善。由於下調廣告收入預測,我們將19年攤薄EPS預測從9.92元人民幣下調至9.89元人民幣(同比增長20.2%);將20年攤薄EPS預測從11.89元人民幣上調至12.46元人民幣(同比增長26.0%),將21年攤薄EPS預測從13.56元人民幣上調至14.85元人民幣(同比增長19.2%)。我們將目標價由404港幣下調至395港幣,基於23.7%的上升空間,我們維持增持評級。

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