騰訊控股(0700.HK)19Q3業績點評:遊戲佔比持續下降,小程序及全球化是亮點,維持“買入”評級
機構:光大證券
評級:買入
騰訊公佈19Q3業績。公司實現營收972億元,YoY+21%;歸母淨利潤204億元,YoY-13%;non-IFRS歸母淨利潤244億元,YoY+24%。
◆遊戲持續佔比下降,收入結構更多元,IFRS歸母淨利潤下滑因去年同期美團投資收益影響。1)在收入端:金融科技與企業服務收入同比增長36%至268億元,佔總收入比28%(QoQ+2pct),已接近遊戲的29%;增值服務收入同比增長15%至506億元;廣告收入同比增長13%至184億元;2)在利潤端:IFRS淨利潤包含非現金投資收益,18Q3美團上市增益較多,高基數下19Q3有所下滑;non-IFRS歸母淨利同比增長24%,體現業務本身成長依然穩健。
◆金融科技與企業服務已成為最重要的收入增長點。1)Q3雲服務高速增長。C2B產業互聯網驅動行業數字化需求,帶來Q3雲服務收入同比增長80%至47億元;2)金融科技收入約221億元同比增長29%:用户活躍度與交易量增加驅動收入增長,規模效益帶來利潤率提升。
◆遊戲全球化戰略值得關注,廣告或將回暖。1)19Q3網絡遊戲收入286億元,同比增長11%(QoQ+3pct)。其中海外Q3收入近30億,貢獻遊戲收入佔比超10%。《PUBGMobile》使得公司IP開發實力廣受認可,《CODMobile》標誌公司躋身全球頂尖開發商之列;後續還將通過與Nintendo合作開發美國主機遊戲市場;2)Q3社交廣告同比增長32%(QoQ+4pct),媒體廣告同比下滑28%。10月後播出環境已出現邊際寬鬆,預計Q4廣告將逐步回暖;“企鵝號”內容中台推送短視頻的精準度與播放量提升,有助於媒體廣告庫存增加。
小程序日活超3億,商業化能力逐漸提高。1)微信及Wechat合併月活躍用户數達11.51億,同比增長6%,小程序日活躍用户數超過3億;2)小程序商業化表現提升:小程序交易(中長尾小程序日均商業交易筆數同比增加超過一倍)和小程序廣告方面表現提升。
◆重申“買入”評級。公司遊戲業務收入佔比持續下降,業務呈現多元化。其中,雲業務高速增長,金融業務具有顯著的規模效益是未來看點,廣告業務或逐步回暖,而遞延收入創新高將在未來釋放。維持公司19/20/21年收入預測3,948、4,943、5963億元人民幣,non-IFRS淨利潤分別為990、1,333、1,559億元;維持“買入”評級。
◆風險提示:宏觀經濟增速下行、流量紅利見頂、競爭風險、估值壓力
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