騰訊控股(00700.HK):遊戲呈現復甦,金融科技成收入增長新引擎,維持“買入”評級,目標價405港元
機構:東吳證券
評級:買入
目標價:405港元
投資要點:
事件:公司19Q3實現營業收入972.36億元(+21%yoy);Non-GAAP淨利潤244.12億元(+24%yoy)。收入結構方面:19Q3增值服務,廣告,金融支付科技三大業務佔比分別為52%,19%,27.5%,其中金融科技業務佔比由去年同期24.4%提升至27.5%,有望逐步成為公司收入增長新引擎。
遊戲:《和平精英》帶動手遊服務,海外表現亮眼。騰訊遊戲19Q3收入為286.04億元,同比增長11%,該季度PC遊戲收入為115億元(yoy–7.3%),手機遊戲收入243億元(yoy+26%)。19年5月上線的《和平精英》貢獻整季度流水收入,同時通過夏季活動更新帶動用户活躍度提升。據伽馬數據統計,19Q3國內整體手遊市場規模約383.8億,同比增長7%,環比下降0.9%,騰訊手遊佔比高達75%,帶動整體市場回暖。遞延收入方面,截至2019Q3,公司流動負債中遞延收入達544.72億元,Q3淨增加額36.25億元,《和平精英》目前仍處於確認遞延收入初期,未來將持續提升收入貢獻。海外方面,《PUBGMOBILE》月活躍賬户數同比增長100%,19Q3合計下載量超過8000萬次;同時,《使命召喚手遊》大獲成功,據SensorTower統計,該遊戲19年10月下載量高達1.46億次。
廣告:排播因素使騰訊廣告承壓,19Q4將迎來複蘇。Q3騰訊廣告收入提升的主要驅動來自於社交廣告增長,社交產品廣告庫存及曝光量提升,我們認為騰訊旗下微信和增值服務產品在用户流量方面具有領先優勢,截至2019Q3,微信MAU達11.51億,同比增長6%;增值服務註冊賬户數持續提升至1.706億,同比增長11%,騰訊未來社交廣告有望保持增長趨勢;整體社交廣告佔比提升也將加強廣告業務盈利能力;同時,Q3媒體廣告受視頻劇集排播影響較大,Q4將回暖。
金融科技業務:收入增長新引擎。19Q3金融科技及企業服務實現營收267.58億元,同比增長36%。雲業務收入同比增長80%至47億元,單季度收入水平就已超越2018年50%營收體量(18年雲業務收入91億元);同時,金融科技服務實現收入220.6億元,同比增長29.3%未來毛利率也會相應提高,19Q3毛利率27.73%,相對於二季度環比提高3.71個百分點,未來金融業務將持續成為收入增長的核心動力。
盈利預測與投資評級:我們預計19-21年公司收入為3727億/4496億/5414億;Non-GAAP歸母淨利潤927億/1159億/1447億,對應Non-GAAPEPS為9.7/12.1/15.2元,對應PE為30/24/19倍,予以20年30倍PE,目標價405港元,維持“買入”評級。(首頁盈利預測以Non-GAAP淨利潤為準)(匯率:1元=1.1152港元)
風險提示:微信生態發展不及預;新遊戲推出和變現不及預期;廣告業務發展不及預期,政策監管風險。

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