You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
新東方在線(01797.HK):東方優播:K12在線小班重塑教培需求,掘金下沉千億市場,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯 11-11 16:18

機構:東方證券

評級:買入

核心觀點

佈局三四線,中心化輸出一線城市優質師資力量。特點總結——小班模式、本地化、教研+服務重,區別在線大班。1)優播通過線上互動小班課,為三四線K12學生線上課程,中心化輸出一二線教師及教研資源;2)三四線城市開設體驗店,負責本地招生&教研同步。前店後廠模式實現快速擴張。

教培行業四象限劃分,四類用户畫像=四塊市場。根據地域劃分&教育需求度,我們提出K12四象限劃分理論,將教培行業劃分為一二線/三四線核心需求及非核心需求四大市場。雙師在線大班解決一二三四線非核心K12客户需求(消費能力弱&教育意識弱),優播通過模式創新解決標準化教培下沉的核心矛盾,滿足三四線核心K12用户需求,在線大班&優播定位不同藍海市場。

三四線教培市場有多大?優播天花板有多高?報告中我們按照教培行業實際發展去重新定義城市,新標準下預計2025年一二/三四線教培市場分別達2894/2912億,空間足夠大。參考新東方&好未來線下班在一二線市場滲透率(核心需求天花板),2025年優播收入天花板預計400億,天花板夠高。

教研、師資和課程互動共造東方優播核心競爭力。①研發能力強,課程精細化程度高於線上雙師大班,體系化能力優於當地線下小班;②師資能力強且可規模化,優播師資集中在核心城市,降維打三四線教培水平。疊加新東方規模化培養師資能力支撐其擴張;③課程互動性強,增強續班率及口碑積累。

財務預測與投資建議

?新東方在線平台迭代,維持“買入”評級。新東方在線多業務板塊處於擴張調整期,而核心業務東方優播短期收入和利潤還沒有完全釋放,且教育行業屬強現金流行業。因此在更長預測週期下,我們採用FCFF估值方法,最終折現獲得公司權益價值213億元(RMB),即每股22.69元(RMB)。按照匯率0.9換算,對應每股價值25.22港幣,維持“買入”評級。

風險提示

行業出現新競爭者、教育政策風險。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account