瑞聲科技(02018.HK)2019年Q3業績點評報告：短期受益大客户出貨提振，中長期有賴安卓高端產品放量，維持“中性”評級，目標價52元港元
機構：光大證券
評級：中性
目標價：52元港元
◆3Q19業績環比改善，營收及利潤率環比上升
3Q19公司實現營收50.1億元人民幣，同比上升2.9%，環比上升31.3%。毛利率同比下降8.5個百分點至29.6%，分析由於供應鏈價格及份額競爭壓力仍存、低毛利率的精密結構件業務佔比擴大所致；環比上升4.6個百分點，季度環比改善趨勢顯現。受毛利率下降影響，淨利率同比下降6.1個百分點至13.9%，對應淨利潤7.0億元人民幣，同比下降29%。
◆聲學業務環比改善，後續表現有賴於安卓迭代需求釋放
3Q19聲學營收同比下降8.5%、環比上升29%，收入佔比45%，毛利率同比下降5.3個百分點至33.3%、環比上升6.1個百分點，由於出貨、ASP壓力持續致同比下降，Q3大客户新機拉貨、安卓聲學SLS如期滲透驅動環比改善。大客户聲學升級週期放緩，聲學整體表現有賴於安卓市場迭代需求釋放，SLS滲透率提升、高端版SLS為更多旗艦機採用將驅動4Q19毛利率繼續改善。
◆馬達業務短期受益大客户出貨提振，結構件業務待5G上量驅動增長
3Q19電磁傳動及精密結構件營收同比上升9.8%、環比上升36.8%；毛利率同比下降8.5個百分點至29.6%、環比上升2.6個百分點。大客户手機出貨超預期提振其馬達出貨表現，然ASP下滑壓力持續，後續安卓高端馬達滲透有助馬達業務繼續成長。結構件出貨量增長強勁，然價格及毛利率承壓；20年5G手機上量有助其產能利用率上升、價值量提高，驅動結構件業務繼續增長。
◆塑料鏡頭規模效益開始凸顯，WLG上量趨勢仍待觀察
3Q19光學業務營收同比上升80%。塑膠鏡頭在主流安卓客户滲透率上升、產品結構優化驅動量價齊升，後續規模效益釋放有助實現更高利潤率；WLG規劃20年量產，實際上量情況有待觀察。3Q19MEMS業務營收同比上升8%，微機電系統晶片和數字化ASIC晶片自制比例提升驅動其毛利率上升。
◆估值與評級
鑑於大客户聲學、馬達業務壓力持續，下調19/20年EPS預測分別2%/6%至2.08/2.57元人民幣；後續安卓市場聲學、馬達高端產品放量，光學業務擴張、盈利改善有望驅動其中長期發展前景更加明朗，上調21年EPS預測1%至3.21元人民幣。基於DCF估值法，上調目標價至52元港幣，對應20/21年20x/16xPE，維持“中性”評級。
◆風險提示：聲學升級遲緩；馬達市場份額下降；金屬機殼行業競爭加劇；光學進展不及預期。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
