金蝶國際(0268.HK)：破繭而出，為雲而生，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點
破繭而出，雲轉型加速推進
公司作為國產ERP領域領先廠商，面對行業技術變革以及雲時代賦予的行業機遇，2011年開始積極開啟雲服務轉型，目前已經構建可覆蓋大中小微型企業的完整雲產品線。我們認為金蝶雲轉型戰略清晰、產品聚焦，在雲ERP領域具備較強的競爭力。雲服務收入近年持續高速增長，佔總收入比重進一步提升，至2019年H1公司雲收入佔比達到37%。
金蝶雲星空-不斷進擊的中型企業雲ERP
中型企業雲ERP市場景氣度高，持續看好；海外SaaS成熟市場，領先公司已經證明了中型企業雲ERP市場旺盛的生命力。金蝶星空持續高增長，新市場需求不斷印證。我們此前多次強調，雲轉型的核心在於新的市場需求。根據公司2019年中報，金蝶雲星空用户中90%為新用户羣體，這意味着星空雲通過中型雲ERP市場的強有力競爭優勢正在為金蝶打開新的市場需求，我們繼續看好星空雲長期的發展機會。
金蝶雲蒼穹-為雲而生，助力大企業數字化轉型
數字化轉型驅動大企業ERP雲化升級。企業ERP雲化趨勢逐漸形成，數字化轉型是其上雲核心動力，同時大型企業因為其業務、流程相比中小型企業的特殊性，在雲ERP的應用中也面臨一定侷限性。金蝶雲蒼穹定位於大型企業雲ERP，雲原生技術架構是其核心優勢，微服務、容器、雲端低代碼可視化開發平台等技術應用將重構ERP助力大企業數字化轉型。大型企業市場所特有的高粘性、高用户價值特性也為蒼穹打開更大成長空間。
盈利預測與投資建議
預計公司 2019年EPS為0.12元/股（參考匯率1港元=0.8986人民幣）。公司作為雲轉型類軟件公司，採用分部估值方式看待公司合理價值，傳統軟件業務給予10倍PE，2020年匹配合理市值為32億；雲業務給予15倍PS，2020年匹配合理市值為321億；綜合2020年合理市值約為353億元（人民幣），對應合理價值為10.63元人民幣/股（11.84元港幣/股），維持“買入”評級。
風險提示
雲ERP推進不達預期的風險；公司業務受經濟環境帶來的企業IT支出波動影響較大。
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