中國石油股份(0857.HK)2019Q3點評：降本未抵油價下行，維持“買入”評級
機構：天風證券
評級：買入
盈利弱於預期
2019Q1-3，公司實現營業收入18144億元，同比+5.1%；歸母淨利潤373億，同比-23.4%。19Q3單季，歸母淨利潤88億。低於我們之前預期，主要原因是，1）降本未抵油價下行幅度；2）煉化銷售整體市場承壓；3）進口天然氣增虧。
勘探開發：持續降本、天然氣佔比提升，未抵油價下跌利潤環比下滑2019Q1-3，公司國內原油、天然氣產量分別同比+1.4%、+9.7%，油氣“增儲上產初見成效”。
Q1-3經營利潤769億，同比+191億。在原油價格同比下降6.4美金/桶的情況下，經營利潤上升，主要得益於：1）成本持續壓縮，19Q1-3桶油當量成本估算同比下降近6美金/桶，即使考慮匯率變化也有近5美金/桶的下降。2）天然氣在油氣比例結構中上升到45%（去年同期43%）。但Q3單季經營利潤環比-160億，主因實現油價降幅較大。
煉化及銷售：Q1-3同比下滑明顯，Q3低位平穩
2019Q1-3，公司煉化板塊原油加工量同比+4.3%，汽油、煤油、柴油產量分別同比+12%、+13%、0%，汽柴比進一步優化。
煉化板塊Q1-3經營利潤71億，同比大幅減少295億，主要原因煉化產能過剩、毛利空間收窄。Q3單季經營利潤22億，環比基本持平。不同於中國石化三季度煉油板塊盈利環比明顯下滑，中國石油煉油盈利環比平穩，因其基本不受原油採購溢價及人民幣匯率因素影響。
銷售板塊延續了二季度以來的虧損態勢，主要原因是市場競爭加劇、價格到位率走低
天然氣板塊：國產氣增利，進口氣增虧
Q1-3天然氣與管道板塊經營利潤人民幣220億，同比+22億；受匯率變化、採購成本增加影響，天然氣與管道板塊銷售進口天然氣及LNG淨虧損人民幣218億元，同比增虧18億。四季度隨國內冬季提價實施，天然氣業績有望回升。
盈利預測與估值：因三季度業績不及預期，下調 2019年業績預測至478億（原為548億），維持20/21年業績預測508/515億。19/20/21EPS0.26/0.28/0.28元，當前股價對應PE14/13/13倍，對應2019年PB0.49倍，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：國際油價大跌導致上游盈利下滑的風險；成品油終端需求壓力大，導致煉油和銷售板塊盈利承壓的風險；化工品競爭加劇的風險；管網出讓估值作價偏低的風險。
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