中國太保(2601.HK)：保險業務穩健，權益類資產佔比提升，維持“審慎增持”評級
機構：興業證券
評級：審慎增持
投資要點
我們的觀點：中國太保在未來的發展中注重打造“數字化”平台，加速“太保轉型2.0”建設，公司壽險業務結構有望持續優化，產險業務盈利性有望持續提升。我們維持公司“審慎增持”評級，下調公司目標價9.1%至36.64港元。2019-2021年，中國太保目標價對應的集團每股內含價值分別為0.84、0.73及0.64倍，建議投資者關注。
2019年前三季度公司業績穩增長：截至2019年9月30日止9個月，公司2019年第三季度營業收入同比增長7.4%；歸屬公司股東淨利潤同比增長80.2%。2019年前三季度，公司加權平均淨資產收益率為14.2%，同比提升5.2個百分點；扣除非經常性損益後加權平均淨資產收益率為11.2%，同比提升2.2個百分點。2019Q1-3，太保壽險實現保險業務收入1,858.8億元，同比增長5.0%。其中，新保業務收入347.3億元，同比下降12.3%。2019Q1-3，太保產險實現保險業務收入1,004.6億元，同比增長12.9%。其中，車險業務收入674.5億元，同比增長5.3%；非車險業務收入330.1億元，同比增長32.3%。
權益類資產佔比擴大，投資收益率略升：截止至2019年9月30日，中國太保集團2019年前三季度投資資產規模達到1.37萬億元，較上年末增加11.1%。從投資結構方面，權益類投資較上年末上升2.0個百分點；投資性房地產佔比較上年末下降0.1個百分點；固定收益類及現金等價物類投資分別較上年末下降0.9及1.0個百分點。2019Q1-3，公司實現總投資收益率5.1%，較2018年末上升0.5個百分點；淨投資收益率4.8%，較2018年末下降0.1個百分點。
風險提示：資本市場波動，保費增速不達預期，公司經營風險，保險行業政策改變
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