You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
廣汽集團(2238.HK)H2019年三季報點評:業績略低於預期,業績增速拐點在即,目標價11.2港元,維持“增持”評級
格隆匯 10-30 16:41

機構:國泰君安

評級:買入

目標價:11.2港元

本報告導讀:2019年Q3歸母淨利潤為14億元(同比-52%),業績略低於預期,源於傳祺的銷售壓力導致毛利率同比下降12.8pct.至6.1%,達到近五年的季度最低值。

摘要:

維持目標價11.2港元,維持“增持”評級。考慮公司自主品牌受行業低景氣度影響導致經營壓力超出預期,下調公司2019/20/21年的EPS預測為0.79(-0.18)/0.92(-0.20)/1.14(-0.14)港元,參考可比公司估值(吉利汽車13.7倍,長城汽車H為12.6倍),考慮日系合資公司的成長性,給予一定估值溢價,給予公司2019年19.6倍PE,目標價為11.2港元。

2019年Q3,公司營收為147億元(同比-10%),歸母淨利潤為14億元(同比-52%),業績略低於預期,源於自主傳祺經營壓力加大。公司歸母淨利潤扣除投資收益後為-11億元,達到近五年的季度最低值,主要源於傳祺的銷售壓力導致毛利率同比下降12.8pct.至6.1%,達到近五年的季度最低值。

2019年Q3,公司投資收益為25.5億元,同比基本持平,預計2019年Q4公司投資收益同比增長20%以上。預計2019年Q3,除廣汽菲克外,合資品牌貢獻的投資收益總額同比增長10%以上,考慮2019年Q4為廣汽菲克業績的拐點,預計投資收益增速將大幅上升。

終端調研顯示,自主傳祺/廣汽菲克的產銷調整已基本完成,預計業績增速拐點在即。集團於2019年起推行職業經理人制度,激勵機制得到完善。2019年8月,公司設立整車事業本部統籌自主品牌業務的研產銷一體化,並相應做了系列的人事調整,預計後續自主品牌的業績改善動力充足。

風險提示:傳祺/菲克改善不及預期,合資企業股權變化

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account