植耀辉: 港股27,000点阻力大 亚马逊AWS业务现挑战
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，港股又再一次未能企稳於27,000点以上水平。两大蓝筹腾讯(00700.HK)及汇控(00005.HK)表现不济是最大因素，汇控绩差之余更「温提」第四季或会进行大额拨备，亦即变相发「盈警」，恐怕股价年内难有起色!
除此以外，本周变数依然甚多，包括内地四中全会消息以及美国联储局议息会议，同时今日(30日)将迎来企业业绩高峰期。不过，整体市况其实仍缺乏方向，相信维持於26,000至27,000点水平上落机会仍较高。
想跟各位谈谈亚马逊(Amazon)一些最新情况。该股上周公布之第三季业绩令投资者大跌眼镜，盈利同比下跌27%，为2017年以来盈利首次按年下跌。盈利表现不理想，最大原因可能在於其推出即日送货服务有关。现时每日有上百万宗商交易是以一日送货方式送到消费者手上。但为了维持该项服务，亚马逊将存货分散储存至全球各仓库，并大幅增加人手。
目前亚马逊全球员工数(包括全职与兼职)达到75万人，单是第三季便增加了将近10万人!结果导致第三季全球送货成本按年急升46%至96亿美元!
亚马逊「大手笔」拓展业务并非第一次，过去在力推网上书店及云服务亦出现此种投资急增同时牺牲短期利润的情况，但每一次投资期过後均又会有理想回报。不过，由於亚马逊仍在力推其Prime会员计划(一年支付119美元年费，并享有一日送货服务)，恐怕第四季业绩仍难有憧憬。
另一个令投资者担心的地方，恐怕是与云端业务(AWS)的表现有关。现时AWS在全球市占率仍高达40%，但优势正不断被竞争对手挑战，其中微软云端服务Azure便是最大对手。在最新季度业绩上，AWS增长为37%，增速有所放缓，相比之下Azure增速虽亦略见倒退，但仍高达59%；此外，微软近年在争取美国政府项目上亦屡有斩获，当中在今年八月底才透过Microsoft Office 365取得美国国防部未来十年价值约76亿美元之办公室软件订单，上周又击败亚马逊，取得总值100亿美元，名为「联合企业国防基建项目」(简称JEDI)之合同，这将进一步有助微软扩大云端版图。
当然，此事亦引发出一连串风波，皆因有指亚马逊创办人贝索斯，其持有之《华盛顿邮报》经常批评特朗普政府，此举令特朗普十分不满，亦一直想「还以颜色」—所以，两件事是否巧合，恐怕只有当事人才知情矣!
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