摩通:降恆生(0011.HK)評級至“減持” 目標價大降29%至142港元
摩根大通發表報告指,香港社會不穩沒有緩和跡象,有關的不利影響已轉化至經濟數據惡化,包括在樓價、零售消費、企業情緒及就業等方面。摩通對香港銀行的資產、流動性和貸款增長進行的壓力測試顯示,恆生銀行(0011.HK)
及東亞銀行(0023.HK)
在盈利及資本方面或會面臨更大的下行風險。報告對香港銀行應用相同的壓力測試假設,包括住宅樓價下跌30%、零售租金下跌30%及寫字樓租金下跌40%等,將導致按揭及相關物業貸款的貸款成本及風險加權資產(RWA)上升,以及投資物業的市場價值損失(MTM loss)增加。
摩通表示,壓力測試顯示香港銀行於明年的盈利有24%至45%的潛在下行,2021年則可能有39%至67%的下降,而恆生在同業中料將面對最大的壓力,因其對淨息差的槓桿最高,而且集中於港元計價的投資組合;另面對第二大壓力的為東亞,因其盈利基礎較小。摩通估計,由於淨息差收縮、手續費收入減少及信貸成本上升,港銀在今年下半年的經營利潤將按半年下降。該行下調對恆生的股份評級,由“
中性
”降至“
減持
”,目標價由200港元大降29%至142港元;東亞評級則維持“
減持
”,目標價由20.6港元降至17.2港元。在香港銀行中,摩通選擇性看好中銀香港(2388.HK)
,評級“
增持
”,目標價37.8港元降至30.6港元,因其在壓測下仍具有足夠的資本狀況,以維持介乎5.5%至6%的較高股息收益率。
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