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大摩:予恆生銀行(0011.HK)目標價140港元 評級“減持”
格隆匯 10-28 17:15
大摩發表的報告指,匯控(0005.HK) 公佈了第三季業績,由於恆生(0011.HK) 並無公佈季績,故該行自匯控業績中參透恆生的業務表現。該行指出匯控香港區第三季撥備前利潤按年增5%至32億美元,期內貸款增長8%,而存款則增2%,淨息差按季持平而非利息收入亦按季穩定,期內費用收入下跌,而按市值計算保險業務亦受打擊,期內經營開支按年升1%,按季則跌3.5%,相信今年第四季公司有望增加投資。
該行指出期內預期信貸損失(ECL)為重要拖累因素,主要因為針對經濟前景的估算有更新及改變,另外在商業銀行中亦有一借款人出現違約。 由於匯控持有恆生,故其業績亦大致反映了恆生的業務趨勢,相信恆生收入將按季持平而預期信貸損失(ECL)開支上升,而受經濟表現及費用收入增長影響,料第四季收入表現將較困難。此外第四季至今一個月銀行同業拆息較第三季平均低約30個基點,相信亦會拖累其淨息差表現。在經營開支方面,該行估計恆生增長將多於1%,因為匯控將部分投資移向了第四季。
該行估計恆生第四季以後盈利能力將顯著下降,主要受收入放慢及預期信貸損失風險拖累,並預期2019-21年其普通股權一級資本比率回報(ROCET1)將跌約5個百分點,而相關因素並未反映在股價上,予目標價140港元,評級“ 減持 ”。

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