美聯料潛在私宅新供應短期見頂 全年落成量勢難達標
運輸及房屋局公布,截至今年9月底止,未來三至四年可提供的一手私宅單位量維持約9.3萬伙,連續六個季度不變。
美聯物業表示,目前覓地困難,即使新一份《施政報告》提及土地共享先導計劃,無疑有助增加公私營供應,比起填海更快到位,但該計劃最快於明年初接受申請,加上由於開拓土地需時,非一時三刻能提供供應。再者,去年底政府公布未來十年公私營房屋比例調整至7比3,以本年度計,由原先1.8萬減少至1.35萬伙,減少兩成半。在此情況下,料未來三至四年新供應短期見頂。
美聯物業房地產數據及研究中心高級經理張蓓蕾指,另一方面,今年第三季私人住宅施工量錄10,500伙,按季大幅急升近5.2倍,並創十四季(即三年半)新高,相信期內有大型項目動工帶動。隨著施工量按季急升,亦成為建築中未售單位由第二季5.3萬伙增至第三季6萬伙水平的動力。
另外,去年第三季至今年第二季私人住宅施工量每季僅介乎1,700至2,300伙,即使上季大幅回升,亦屬補回早前偏低的差距。事實上,在第三季施工量大幅急增下,今年首三季施工量累計約1.45萬伙,相比起去年首三季1.64萬伙仍少約11.6%。
至於落成量方面,第三季錄4,400伙,較次季4,800伙回落約8.3%。若以首三季合計,共1.01萬伙落成,佔政府全年落成量預測20,415伙約一半,預期全年達標的機會不大。
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