中信證券:首予旭輝控股(0884.HK)“買入”評級 目標價6.96港元
中信證券日前報告稱,旭輝控股(0884.HK)能適應行業變化,有較好的抗風險能力,銷售強勁,土儲優質,信用良好。目前估值處於較低水平。我們首次覆蓋,給予“買入”評級,目標價6.96港元。
尋找適應行業變化的地產藍籌。在中長期行業穩健發展的基礎上,我國地產行業發生明顯結構分化。一是自2018 年棚改落潮,一、二線城市市場顯著強於三四線;二是流動性充裕環境中,政策加大對房地產公司融資的限制,地產融資呈現“強者恆強”特徵,信貸資源明顯向頭部集中。而公司能力恰恰適應行業的變化。
精選城市,工於產品:銷售強勁。公司在城市選擇上較為嚴苛,進入的城市均是房地產市場較為發達的重點城市,這些城市商品房去化週期明顯小於其他城市。同時公司注重產品質量及結構,主打中高端改善型。優選的佈局和產品,使得公司具有更強的去化確定性和抗風險能力。過去5 年,公司銷售額複合增長率為58.2%,位於行業前列。銷售質量更佳,2019 年中期回款率達到95%的高水準。
逆進順退,多元擴充:土儲優質。公司有明確的土地儲備策略,即逆週期原則,在土地溢價率較低的窗口期集中拿地,注重運用合作開發規避風險。同時公司積極拓展拿地渠道,一二級聯動、商業勾地、收併購、舊城改造四輪齊發,保證公司開發、銷售資源充裕。截至2019 年6 月末,權益未結算貨值約為2963億元,權益未結算毛利約為845億元,毛利率約為31.4%,仍處於行業領先水平,凸顯了公司獲取土地的能力。
注重盈利,穩健槓桿:信用良好。公司注重盈利能力考核,財務政策穩健。利潤率、預收覆蓋率、費用率等指標穩定,財務指標質量較高。財務槓桿審慎,不謀求過分擴大規模。優質的財務表現,深得市場認可;公司2019 年中期融資成本僅為5.9%,遠低於一般民企。
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