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中廣核電力(1816.HK):前三季度發電量穩增,利用小時數輕微下降,維持“持有”評級,目標價2.17 港元
格隆匯 10-21 09:16

機構:廣發證券

評級:持有

目標價:2.17 港元

核心觀點: 

 2019 年前三季度發電量符合預期 

公司披露了 2019 年三季度運營簡報。公司 2019 年前三季度實現核電發 電量(包括附屬和聯營公司)138,044GWh,同比增長 13.09%。總上網電量 128,303GWh,同比增長 12.03%,符合預期。主要是新投產的陽江 5、6 號機 組和台上 1、2 號機組帶來的發電量增長。 

 市場化交易比例持續上升,價差進一步縮窄 

2019 年前三季度公司參與市場化交易比例 33.28%,除廣東省後為 58.39%,均較去年同期有所提升。分省份來看,廣東、遼寧福建參與市場化交 易比例分別為 20%/38.91%/56.12%。市場平均交易電價為 0.3619 元/kwh,除 廣東省後為 0.3525 元/kwh,均較去年有所提升,主要是由於增值税税率下調。 廣東省目前市場化交易價差為 3.9 分/kwh,較去年同期 6.5 分/kwh 大幅減少 40%。我們預計,隨着市場化不斷提高,價差將會進一步縮窄,電價保持穩定。

 2019 年前三季度大修時間有所上升,利用小時數輕微下降 

2019 年前三季度公司共完成 12 次機組換料大修,累計大修天數 439 天, 同比增加 10 天。前三季度利用小時數 5518 小時,同比下降 1%,總體較為穩 定。根據公司指引和我們的預計,2019 年仍有 5 次大修待完成,全年大修天數 高於 2018 年,預計全年平均利用小時數有所下降。 

 2020-2021 年裝機投放速度有所放緩 截止到 2019 年 9 月 30 日,公司共有在建機組 4 台,3 台機組處於設備安 裝階段,1 台機組處於土地施工階段,預計裝機投放速度有所放緩。紅沿河 5 台機組已於今年國慶後進入調試階段,2021 年紅沿河 6 號機組有望投產,機 組容量均為 1119MW。防城港 3、4 號機組將在 2022 年或以後有望投產,受此 影響預計 2021 年發電量增速會有較為明顯的放緩。 

 盈利預測和投資評級 

2019 年 10 月 17 日中廣核電力(01816.HK)收盤價為 2.04 港元。我們 預測公司 2019/20/21 年 EPS 為人民幣 0.196/0.210/0.214 元。由於公司運營 穩健,2019 年核電機組穩步投放,發電量持續攀升等正面因素,我們基於 2019 年 10 倍 PE,給予 2.17 港元/股的合理價值,維持“持有”評級。 

 風險提示 電力供需形勢總體寬鬆;在建機組投產晚於預期;電力市場化所帶來的價 格回調風險;人民幣與港元之間匯率風險。 

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