廣汽集團(02238.HK)：日系增羽翼，自主換新顏，給予“推薦”評級
機構：東興證券
評級：推薦
報告摘要：
廣汽集團旗下廣汽本田和廣汽豐田的強勢週期還將持續相當長的時間。汽車消費環境方面，隨着國人的汽車消費觀趨於實惠，耐用省油的日系。車將繼續擴大優勢。此外，國際環境的變動使得美系競品受歡迎程度下降。
車型方面，本田、豐田的雙車戰略將使廣汽補足短板。2019年底即將上市的緊湊型SUV——本田皓影有望充分享受CRV長期熱銷帶來的良好口碑。三缸機的滲透給了日系揚長避短的機會。使德系、美系三缸車型折戟的舒適、動力短板，並不是日系消費者關注的重點。本田凌派和思域推出三缸車型後銷量良好，後續兩田的三缸機繼續普及，有望為銷量添磚加瓦。新能源方面，豐田是國內全混動車（HEV）中的翹楚。廣豐擁有雷凌、凱美瑞兩大成熟HEV車型，將受益於雙積分和消費者對油耗的日趨重視。
廣汽傳祺即將換代的走量車型——GS4將帶動品牌銷量復甦。廣汽新能源的的A+級純電轎車AionS瞄準了目前大空間、高續航領域，的產品真空，2019年初推出以來市場反饋良好。廣汽趕在外資大量佈局純電動前搶佔了先機。
我們預計公司2019年汽車業務總銷量為209.4萬輛，同比下降3%。其中傳祺/廣汽新能源/本田/豐田的銷量分別為37.8萬（同比-27%）、2.4萬（同比21%）、78.6萬（同比6%）和65.8萬（同比13%）。
預測公司2019/2020/2021年營收分別為622/746/829億元，同比增長-14%/20%/11%；歸母淨利潤分別為81.6/88.4/88億元，同比增長-25.3%/8.4%/-0.5%；EPS分別為0.8/0.86/0.86人民幣，對應0.86/0.96/0.95港元；對應PE分別為9.2/8.4/8.5x，對應PB分別為0.92/0.86/0.81x。我們認為隨着產品陸續進入強週期，公司的估值將逐漸修復。給予公司港股2020年1.25倍PB，目標價10.64港元，相對當前股價有31%的上升空間。
風險提示：乘用車消費不及預期；原材料價格大幅上漲。
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