《大行報告》花旗:運費急升將侵蝕中石化(00386.HK)煉油利潤
花旗發表研究報告,指自中遠海能(01138.HK)全資子公司9月下旬遭美國制裁後,超大型油船(VLCC)由波斯灣至日本運費急增近3倍,由每桶原油1.8美元升至前日(15日)的近6.8美元。運費急升將侵蝕中石化(00386.HK)煉油利潤。
報告稱,中石化有70%至80%的VLCC租賃受市場現價運費影響。儘管實際影響取決於運費急升會持續的時間多久,該行預估,倘單季煉油毛利每桶減少3美元,中石化2020年盈利將跌5%。今年上半年中石化實現煉油毛利錄每桶7.7美元。
花旗表示,以市場現價運費計,在稅息前盈利層面來說,中石化煉油毛利現已陷入負值。不過,這通常有一個半至兩個月的時間差,料今年12月影響將會浮面。該行引述《路透》早前報道,中石化正研究收縮每日煉油業務規模,反映不正常的高運費已侵蝕利潤。報告予其「買入」投資評級,目標價6.8元。
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