瑞銀:下調比亞迪(1211.HK)目標價至32港元 評級“沽售”
瑞銀髮表報告重新覆蓋比亞迪股份(01211.HK),並予“沽售”評級,目標價由38港元降至32港元。該行認為公司作為新能源車的領導,與其他代工商比較估值上存溢價,但隨着其他生產商新能源車規模亦在擴張,料估值差距將收窄。
該行認為比亞迪為工業巨頭,認為其電動車業務及電動車電池業務為股價增長引擎,認同公司在中國的行業地位、上游整合及電動車品牌地位,認為已反映在其溢價上,但公司在電動車層面有較大及較集中的曝光,令公司容易成為市場競爭加劇及補貼減少的受客者,相信公司盈利能力將面對挑戰,而該行對其2019-2020年盈利預測較市場預期低逾20%。
瑞銀估計公司2018年售出24.8萬台電動車可獲逾100億元人民幣(下同)的補貼,但受補貼於今年下半年下降影響,估計將為公司未來四個季度帶來逾50億元的負面影響,幅度難靠降本增效彌補,而在該行覆蓋的企業中比亞迪所獲補貼最多,相當於其2019/20年預測盈利的4.1倍及3.3倍,相比之下吉利汽車(00175.HK)比例少於15%。
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