丘鈦科技(01478.HK)9月出貨點評:市場位勢上移潛力兑現,19年業績或顯著超預期且20年高成長待延續,維持“買入”評級,目標價12.1港幣
機構:光大證券
評級:買入
目標價:12.1港幣
◆9月迎接高端項目拉貨期,公司產品結構優化成效顯著
9月為國產安卓品牌旗艦機型拉貨期,公司10MP以上攝像模組CCM及屏下指紋高端產品出貨量環比上升顯著,顯示公司在核心客户高端項目供應鏈地位提升,產品結構主動調整戰略成效超預期。
9月CCM出貨量同比上升53%,環比上升18%,主要得益於10MP以上高端項目大幅上量環比上升31%,對應10MP以上出貨佔比達65%。1-9月CCM累計出貨量同比大幅增長60%,高於全年50%增速指引。
9月指紋模組FRM出貨量同比上升14%,環比上升30%,主要得益於屏下及非屏下項目共同放量。1-9月FRM累計出貨量同比下降11%,其中屏下指紋出貨佔比為49%,高於全年40%佔比指引,全年產品結構優化有保障。
◆行業高景氣+自身市場地位提升,驅動919年業績超預期且020年繼續快成長
光學行業持續高景氣,超高像素、多攝滲透趨勢於2019年如期兑現且於2020年滲透率進一步提升,疊加3DTOF或於2020年順利放量,光學龍頭企業業績高成長具備更高持續性及確定性。丘鈦科技成功躋身華為Mate30及Pro系列的前攝、後攝、3DTOF以及屏下指紋項目,印證其技術服務能力堪比一線陣營,未來市場位勢具備繼續上移動力。
受益主流安卓品牌的重點支持,CCM行業整體需求量增長疊加自身供應鏈份額擴張驅動其CCM出貨量保持強勁增長且20年有望延續快速增長;華為、OPPO等核心客户中高端項目陸續上量,產品結構升級趨勢確立驅動其價格及毛利率繼續改善。公司指紋模組業務戰略調整效果凸顯,屏下指紋出貨佔比擴大且屏下指紋應用具備繼續升級動力,驅動FRM業務價格及毛利率改善。
◆估值與評級
綜合CCM及FRM業務,我們預計公司19年業績有望顯著超市場預期,且20年仍有望保持快速增長,上調19-21年EPS預測18%/11%/16%至0.40/0.55/0.72元人民幣。鑑於公司市場位勢逐步比肩一線陣營,業績成長性及確定性較佳,參考舜宇及歐菲光一線龍頭20年PE平均約25倍,認為給予20年20倍PE(對應19年28倍PE)為合理估值水平,上調目標價至12.1港幣,維持“買入”評級。
◆風險提示:攝像模組行業競爭加劇;產品結構升級不及預期。
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