You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
紅星美凱龍(01528.HK):家居賣場龍頭,強者恆強,給予“買入”評級,目標價8.03港幣
格隆匯 10-14 09:17

機構:國元證券

評級:買入

目標價:8.03港幣

投資要點

國內家居行業進入穩增長,龍頭集中度提升

1)穩增長:2018年我國家居零售行業零售額增長至33045億元,同比增長11.9%,行業進入穩增長階段;2)集中度提升:2018年國內前五大連鎖家居裝飾及傢俱零售商零售銷售額為佔連鎖家居裝飾及傢俱商場總市場份額的34.5%,龍頭集中度不斷提升;3)雙寡頭格局已成:紅星美凱龍和居然之家市佔率分列前兩名,且領先優勢較大,未來在中小對手出清的局面下有望繼續提升。

家居行業龍頭,優勢明顯

1)雙輪驅動:堅持“自營+委管”,即重資產和輕資產結合,每年保持穩步拓店,租金穩定增長,形成很強的後入壁壘;2)抗週期性:經營模式具有一定抗地產週期性,三輪地產下行週期,經營依舊保持穩健增長;3)規模優勢:資產及門店數位居第一,386家家居建材店/產業街覆蓋全國29個省;4)品牌優勢::家居行業渠道強於品牌,公司建立了品牌優勢,較強的招商能力,及高議價能力。

順應趨勢,擁抱新零售

1)智慧平台:2018年10月推出IMP平台,提高線上流量引入、復購率及轉化率,我們認為會進一步加強“TOC”端;2)引入阿里:阿里進入帶來新零售直接的資源對接,有助於新零售門店建設、複合業態打造、電商平台搭建,消費金融落地方案以及物流倉儲安裝體系構建,提升“TOB”端。公司與阿里推進線上線下的結合,憑藉公司自身線下具有的優勢,未來將持續受益於新零售。

首次覆蓋,給予“買入”評級

我們預測公司2019-2021年淨利潤同比增長10.0%/13.9%/15.4%,對應EPS分別為1.39/1.58/1.82元人民幣,給予目標價8.03港幣,對應2020年扣非淨利潤9倍PE,首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account