騰訊控股(0700.HK)：轉型週年考，騰訊產業互聯網進展如何？
機構：光大證券
評級：買入
◆騰訊C2B模式重構新商業/政務鏈路，樹立多個標杆案例。1）騰訊C2B核心優勢：通過QQ與微信，騰訊強大的用户基礎“連接”更多人及擁有更多多維數據、21年的產品能力讓騰訊更懂“人”和“需求”；2）騰訊在智慧零售、智慧政務、智慧金融等領域的標杆案例驗證了C2B模式的巨大潛力：a)騰訊的每個C端用户即普通消費者，智慧零售先行成功驗證C2B模式；b)“數字廣東”的成功經驗已全國推廣，“國家政務服務平台”已試運行；c)騰訊與泰康合作的微保方案是C2B模式在金融業實踐的典型案例。
◆騰訊整體上雲應作為“一把手工程”，由最高決策者或內部具威望的人親自掛帥，此舉具備重要的信號作用。公司雲業務起步較晚，為迎頭趕上需更大力度頂配各類戰略資源，排除萬難推動自研上雲：1）對內，意味着公司事業羣間的壁壘被打破，開源協同文化得到確立，技術升級開啟；2）對外，意味着騰訊將成為騰訊雲最大的客户，本身就是最好的產品背書。
◆打造強勢中台非常必要選任CTO刻不容緩。1）賽馬機制已阻礙了技術領先。在產品文化下，公司對於技術建設的重視和管理均不足；“賽馬機制”進一步阻礙了技術交流與共享，兩者共同導致了沉重的技術負債。技術委員會的成立有助於協調部門利益，但仍不足以帶領騰訊實現技術趕超；2）技術建設和騰訊雲業務的發展刻不容緩。宜儘快選任CTO並充分賦予權限，全面領導技術架構與騰訊雲的建設；3）呼喚強勢中台建立，基於多維羣體性用户數據進行合理挖掘。騰訊的數據價值觀一直較為保守謹慎，不會打通數據和唯數據論，但基於全量羣體性用户數據分析，仍需要強勢中台推進。
◆產業生態投資成加速器，值得重點跟蹤關注。1）騰訊在ToB領域的投資呈現出與ToC產品投資不同的風格：投資方向明確、業務導向下注重整合協同、推動生態內的資源嫁接與合作而非競爭；2）ToB投資聚焦“技術方案生態+行業解決方案生態+關鍵技術卡位”三個領域，19年以來戰略投資的重點為技術方案與技術卡位；3）騰訊及其生態內部充裕的業務資源及合作機會是其產業投資的重要特點；因此騰訊產業生態投資的投後管理和業務催化比投資本身更加值得市場關注。
◆估值與評級：產業互聯網發展尚需時間，公司在重點標杆項目有所突破，期待公司在技術建設和整體上雲上取得新進展。維持公司19/20/21年收入預測3,948、4,943、5,936億元人民幣，Non-GAAP淨利潤分別為990、1,333、1,559億元；維持“買入”評級。
◆風險提示：技術提升不達預期、騰訊雲錯過最佳發展期
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