世茂房地產(0813.HK ) ：2019年9月年度銷售目標接近完成，維持“買入”評級
機構：中信證券
評級：買入
公司銷售位居行業前列，資金成本具備競爭力，非住宅開發業務歷時悠久，盈利能力較強，業務發展齊頭並進。我們維持“買入”評級。
▍銷售增速位居行業前列。2019年9月公司實現銷售金額320.9億元，實現銷售面積181萬平米，同比分別增長增長57%及42%，公司9月銷售金額及銷售面積均創單月數據的歷史新高。前三季度，公司累計實現銷售額1,739.9億元，實現銷售面積970.2萬平米，同比增長44%及32%，已完成公司2019年銷售目標2100億元的82.9%。
▍公司區域並無明顯下沉，銷售高增長並不會明顯犧牲盈利能力。公司前9個月，銷售均價17934元/平米，同比有所上升。公司基本不下沉區域，聚焦主要城市羣，並透過多元化的拿地手段控制地價成本。我們認為，公司銷售額的提高並不會明顯犧牲盈利能力。
▍融資渠道通暢，資金成本有競爭力。公司財務長期穩健，淨負債率連續7年控制在60%以下，有息負債中短期債務佔比低。受益於良好的信用記錄，公司享受民營企業中較低的資金成本。2019年上半年，公司融資成本控制在5.6%左右，較2018年繼續下降。我們預計，隨着前端融資的收緊，公司的融資成本優勢可能更大。
▍培養能力，均衡發展。公司的非地產業務發展均衡，商業投資、酒店、物業管理等業務齊頭並進。截至2019年上半年末，公司自持已開業酒店22家，客房總數7000間。公司物業管理板塊增長迅速，2019年7月，服務160餘項目240萬業主，簽約管理面積達1億平米。
▍風險因素：公司外債佔比高，可能存在一定匯率風險。在港資源儲備的價格可能會有所波動。
▍投資建議：公司銷售增速在我們跟蹤的大企業中居於前列，財務結構健康，資金成本具備競爭力，非開發類業務齊頭並進。我們維持公司2019/2020/2021年EPS3.44/4.49/5.24元的預測，維持41.26港元/股的NAV預測。維持公司29.70港元/股的目標價及“買入”投資評級。
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