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復星國際(0656.HK):聚焦家庭消費,產業賦能價值被低估,首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級
格隆匯 10-10 15:33

機構:國盛證券

評級:買入

產業賦能:公司的獨特競爭力和核心價值。與市場將公司簡單看作多元化投資型集團公司的傳統觀點不同,我們認為公司作為一個橫縱向產業佈局寬廣、具有全球化能力的綜合性企業,培育產業和運營產業是公司特殊的競爭力和核心價值:

1)從縱向來看,公司投資運營一體化各環節的經驗和能力有助於公司培育新產業、助其成長或通過資本市場實現價值;

2)從橫向來看,公司多業務板塊間存在較大協同空間和潛力;

3)就地域而言,公司依託獨特的全球化能力,對接全球資源與中國動力;

4)公司正在大力打造的C2M智能中台力圖整合資源更快地對終端消費者進行反應。

以ClubMed、復宏漢霖為代表的產業成果反覆證明了公司這種獨特的產業賦能能力,我們預計公司未來還將培育和壯大一批產業明星,並從中實現公司價值。正是由於市場忽視了公司產業間作為一個有機整體而形成的上述產業賦能能力及其價值,導致公司市值長期被低估。

聚焦家庭:三大板塊最終面向家庭消費,明確定位有助於更快成長。儘管公司產業佈局涉及行業較多,但公司近年來已明確聚焦家庭消費者,將產業梳理為健康、快樂、富足三大板塊。

我們認為明確的產業定位將有助於公司決策更加聚焦,推動更快成長:

1)健康:深耕健康產業價值鏈條,佈局醫藥產品、醫療服務、健康管理和健康消費品,以復星醫藥為核心,加大研發投入,與保險跨平台聯動。

2)快樂:聚焦內容、模式、產品,打通線上平台和線下場景,進行深度產業運營。旅遊休閒服務以復星旅文為核心,與ClubMed、三亞亞特蘭蒂斯、復遊旅行、Miniversity、愛必儂、泛秀等形成生態系統,自生擴大。體驗式服務則圍繞豫園股份、青島啤酒、百合佳緣、狼隊、Studio8等涉足多個消費領域,百花齊放,同時試水網紅經濟開拓營銷新渠道。時尚方面,LANVIN等五大服裝品牌構建獨特組合。

3)富足:由保險、投資、金融三類業務構成,提供穩定的現金流和利潤,是C2M戰略的基石,積極進行科技引領與數智化轉型。

投資建議:我們預測公司2019-2021年的歸母淨利潤分別為150.9/170.2/188.8億元,同比增長12.6%/12.7%/11.0%,對應EPS分別為1.77/1.99/2.21元,2018-2021年CAGR為12%,當前股價對應PE分別為4.9/4.4/3.9倍,PB僅0.6倍,當前估值處於歷史低位。我們採用分部估值法,給予公司股票目標價15.7港元(對應2019年8倍PE),首次覆蓋,給予“買入”評級。

風險提示:資產整合風險,匯率波動風險,海外經營風險,科創研發不達預期風險等。

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