中國海洋石油(0883.HK):產量如期且成本控制良好,首次覆蓋“買入“評級,目標價14.00港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:買入
目標價:14港元
國際油市充滿不確定性,但我們預計布倫特原油價格將於60美元每桶附近得到支撐。全球基本面在貿易保護主義抬頭的形勢下,持續展露疲軟跡象,觸發對未來需求的擔憂。但我們預計中短期內油價受多重支撐,包括全球央行展開的降息潮,以及歐佩克良好的減產執行率。
憑藉如期的產量及桶油成本的進一步改善,中海油2019年上半年實現盈利超預期。受桶油成本同比下降8.9%推動,淨利錄得同比18.7%的增長。產量如期,預計將實現2019年生產目標,而逆週期的資本開支則可支撐未來增產計劃(上半年資本開支同比增60.5%)。派息為0.33港元每股,同比增長10.0%,派息率為42.8%。
我們預計中海油2019-2021年淨利分別為人民幣588億元、人民幣686億元和人民幣775億元。我們對公司2019-2021年平均實現油價的預測分別為62美元每桶、64美元每桶和67美元每桶,至於桶油成本,我們預計公司能夠維持在當前水平(約31美元每桶)。
我們再次覆蓋給予“買入”投資評級,目標價14.00港元。我們的目標價分別對應9.7倍/8.3倍/7.4倍2019-2021市盈率,且較我們用折現現金流方法得出的公司估值(18.54港元每股)有25%的折讓。下行風險包括油價暴跌以及公司生產受到意外干擾。

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