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《大行报告》瑞银料中国第三季GDP按年增长放缓至5.9%
阿思达克 10-04 14:48

瑞银发表报告表示,中国内地9月官方及财新制造业PMI反弹,新订单、出口等均优於预期。不过,该行料中国稍後公布今年第三季GDP按年增长放缓至5.9%。该行指,因猪肉价格持续上升,内地通胀可能会上升,而生产者物价指数(PPI)则会陷入较大收缩。

该行指,中美两国下周会展开贸易谈判,料或有部份正面进展,但不明朗因素仍大,相信2020年美国总统选举之前,中美能否就贸易否达协议令人怀疑。按该行基本情境预测,中国出口将面临较高关税。

瑞银料,人行於今年第四季会再降银行存款准备金50个基点,在明年再降存款准备金100个基点,降低公开市场操作利率(如中期借贷便利)约10至15个基点。该行估计,中国今年第四季或明年首季GDP增长会进一步放缓,料明年第二季会适度回升。假设没有达成贸易协议,而所宣布关税全部上调,料中国明年GDP增长约5.5%。

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