新東方在線(01797.HK):優質產品驅動付費,東方優播聚焦下沉市場,給予“買入”評級,目標價15.32港元
機構:廣發證券
評級:買入
目標價:15.32港元
核心觀點:
在線教育行業核心:流量導入能力及付費轉化能力,新東方在線優勢明顯
在《在線教育行業:盈利模式處於探索期,資本化開啟》報告中我們詳述了在線教育目前的產業政策、發展階段、市場規模以及競爭格局,本報告我們重點討論在線教育行業的核心,並總結流量導入能力以及付費轉化能力是在線教育品牌最為關鍵的競爭力。新東方在線作為港股在線教育第一股,背靠新東方集團,並獲得騰訊戰略投資,通過新東方在線、東方優播、多納以及酷學英語等平台運營大學教育、K12教育以及學前教育三大主營業務。公司能夠在行業仍處盈利探索期時率先具備持續盈利的能力,主要是因為其流量導入能力以及付費轉化能力,支撐公司付費人次以及各業務板塊ARPU值提升。
大學教育底盤業務穩固,K12網校及東方優播取差異化攫取K12培訓需求
(1)大學教育:19財年付費學生人次同比提升11.7%,整體營收同比提升36.5%。隨着留學潮以及考研競爭日趨激烈,預計大學業務營收以及盈利水平均能保持穩定增長。
(2)K12教育:K12網校目前採用雙師互動直播模式開展,主要面向全國範圍開展大班課。而東方優播主要是針對三四線城市開展的線上小班課,定位下沉市場。基於低線城市對於優質教育資源的強烈需求,我們認為東方優播這種獨創模式或將在下沉市場再造“線上新東方”。受業務快速開拓影響,目前K12教育板塊毛利率水平有一定下滑,隨着東方優播各低線城市校區進入盈利階段,K12板塊整體盈利水平具有較大彈性。我們長期看好K12下沉市場的需求以及東方優播的盈利能力。
(3)學前教育:主要依託多納產品。隨着多納系列產品的優化,19財年學前教育業務雖然付費學生人次同比減少,但ARPU值提升明顯,驅動19財年學前業務營收同比增長205.8%。預計未來正式課付費人次將穩步提升,學前教育將持續享受量價齊升。
投資建議:
我們預測新東方在線2020~2022財年預計實現營收13.00/18.86/28.16億人民幣,實現歸母淨利-0.51/-0.06/0.92億元。2019/9/27收盤價對應PS分別為8.2/5.7/3.8X。考慮公司是目前少數具備盈利能力的在線教育機構,雖然19財年受規模擴張及營銷活動影響,盈利能力有所下滑,但在東方優播各校區跑出盈利模式之後K12業務有望迎來快速發展。作為第一家登陸港股的在線教育機構,並且公司於19/9/9納入港股通標的,流動性進一步加強。綜合考慮絕對估值以及相對估值,我們得到新東方在線合理價值為15.32港元/股,首次覆蓋,給予“買入”評級。
風險提示
在線教育行業監管加嚴的風險;VIE架構的政策風險;行業競爭加劇的風險。
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