中教控股( 00839.HK )： 收购澳洲国王学院，海外首单收购落地，维持“增持”评级
机构：国盛证券
评级：增持
1.34亿澳元收购澳洲悉尼国王学院100%%股权，海外首单收购落地。此次收购协议及留任协议的总代价不高于1.34亿澳元，包括托管金额1400万澳元、向关键高管等相关法人团体支付不高于1050万澳元用于留任激励。收购价格对应2019财年历史EV/EBITDA9.4倍，标的学校截至2019年6月30日的2019财年除税后净利885万澳元（折合4696.7万港元），EBITDA1418万澳元（约7531.7万港元），EBITDA率达37.5%，收购标的预计于2019年10月完成交割和并表。
标的学校：悉尼最大私立商学院，经营良好，成长性和盈利能力俱佳。作为悉尼最大的私立商学院，国王学院三大校区位于悉尼市中心商业核心区，截至最新学年有2455名拥有来自全球近100个国家，拥有硕士和学士学位授予权，开设热门的会计、商业管理、IT、TESOL等专业，以高质量获中国教育部正式认证。学校过去两年经营状况良好，学生人数方面，2019学年同增16.6%，收购前获澳大利亚政府批准增加招生指标至3,225人（yoy31%），目前距可容纳量4225名仍有30%+空间；学费方面每年均有一定增长，综合看标的学校2019财年收入同增13%。
收购整合：为中国留学生占比仅为1%，合作办学突显协同效应。澳洲留学市场欢迎度高、增速显著，2014-2017年留学生人数CAGR达12%，国际学生增速远快于国内学生，国际学生占比达30%，是增速最快的国家之一，而中国是重要的供给市场。标的学校国王学院中国学生占比不到1%，收购后有望打开国内留学生市场，提升空间显著，具体方式包括可与悉尼国王学院实现互换学分、双学位课程等多种合作办学形式。
投资建议。公司作为规模最大的民办高教上市公司，有望利用规模优势、融资优势及管理优势持续扩张高教版图，享受行业整合红利。考虑到重庆翻译学院和澳洲国王学院并表有望增厚2020财年收入和利润，上调2020/2021财年净利润预测至9.60/11.00亿元（原8.91/10.17亿），维持2019财年净利润7.40亿预测，对应EPS0.37/0.48/0.54元/股，现价对应2019/20年PE27/21倍，维持“增持”评级。
风险提示：《民促法实施条例》终稿政策不确定性风险；扩张速度不达预期；公司经营及盈利能力不达预期。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
