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中教控股( 00839.HK ): 收购澳洲国王学院,海外首单收购落地,维持“增持”评级
格隆汇 09-30 15:39

机构:国盛证券

评级:增持

1.34亿澳元收购澳洲悉尼国王学院100%%股权,海外首单收购落地。此次收购协议及留任协议的总代价不高于1.34亿澳元,包括托管金额1400万澳元、向关键高管等相关法人团体支付不高于1050万澳元用于留任激励。收购价格对应2019财年历史EV/EBITDA9.4倍,标的学校截至2019年6月30日的2019财年除税后净利885万澳元(折合4696.7万港元),EBITDA1418万澳元(约7531.7万港元),EBITDA率达37.5%,收购标的预计于2019年10月完成交割和并表。

标的学校:悉尼最大私立商学院,经营良好,成长性和盈利能力俱佳。作为悉尼最大的私立商学院,国王学院三大校区位于悉尼市中心商业核心区,截至最新学年有2455名拥有来自全球近100个国家,拥有硕士和学士学位授予权,开设热门的会计、商业管理、IT、TESOL等专业,以高质量获中国教育部正式认证。学校过去两年经营状况良好,学生人数方面,2019学年同增16.6%,收购前获澳大利亚政府批准增加招生指标至3,225人(yoy31%),目前距可容纳量4225名仍有30%+空间;学费方面每年均有一定增长,综合看标的学校2019财年收入同增13%。

收购整合:为中国留学生占比仅为1%,合作办学突显协同效应。澳洲留学市场欢迎度高、增速显著,2014-2017年留学生人数CAGR达12%,国际学生增速远快于国内学生,国际学生占比达30%,是增速最快的国家之一,而中国是重要的供给市场。标的学校国王学院中国学生占比不到1%,收购后有望打开国内留学生市场,提升空间显著,具体方式包括可与悉尼国王学院实现互换学分、双学位课程等多种合作办学形式。

投资建议。公司作为规模最大的民办高教上市公司,有望利用规模优势、融资优势及管理优势持续扩张高教版图,享受行业整合红利。考虑到重庆翻译学院和澳洲国王学院并表有望增厚2020财年收入和利润,上调2020/2021财年净利润预测至9.60/11.00亿元(原8.91/10.17亿),维持2019财年净利润7.40亿预测,对应EPS0.37/0.48/0.54元/股,现价对应2019/20年PE27/21倍,维持“增持”评级。

风险提示:《民促法实施条例》终稿政策不确定性风险;扩张速度不达预期;公司经营及盈利能力不达预期。

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