玖龍紙業(02689.HK)：持續推進產業鏈垂直佈局，維持“買入”評級
機構：國信證券
評級：買入
毛利率承壓，淨利潤降幅小於預期
玖龍紙業2019FY實現收入546.47億元，同比增長3.5%；其中銷量1410萬噸，較去年增加8.5%，美國業務貢獻增量較多；噸均售價下降4.6%。淨利潤約38.59億元，不計匯兑虧損的同比降幅為48.9%，好於我們預期的53.1%。公司2019FY毛利率15.4%，較2018FY的21.9%下降6.5%，主要系產品售價下行和成本提高所致。銷售費用率2.9%，較2018FY提高0.8%；管理費用率3.1%，較2018FY提高0.8%；財務費用率1.7%，和2018FY基本持平。
加快海外佈局和產業鏈垂直整合步伐
公司積極進行造紙和製漿產能擴張，推進國內、海外、上下游佈局。造紙方面，國內業績期內新增重慶55萬噸產能，並計劃2019Q4—2021陸續在國內投放205萬噸、馬來西亞55萬噸共計260萬噸新增產能；2021年底造紙總產能有望提高到1812萬噸。製漿方面，公司9月在馬來西亞收購一家公司，新增48萬噸再生漿產能；在陸續實現美國產線升級改造後，預期2021年底前木漿和再生漿產能提高至161萬噸。
上述舉措將有助於公司在我國外廢進口下降和國廢緊缺的環境下，提高自身原材料供應的穩定性和成本的可控性，通過全球化+垂直產業鏈整合，向國際化造紙巨頭邁進。
維持盈利預測和和“買入”評級
預測公司2019-2021年的收入分別為626.26、732.10和776.02億元，同比增速分別為14.6%、16.9%和6.0%；淨利潤分別為37.87、90.05和86.02億元，同比增速分別為-1.9%、137.8%和-4.5%。2019年9月25日公司收盤價6.34港元對應的預測PB分別為0.64、0.55和0.48倍。
我們認為貿易戰反覆、人民幣匯率波動、行業疲弱等諸多市場擔憂的因素已經在公司股價和業績中有較為充分反映。未來廢紙價格可能會開始隨原紙波動，公司毛利率有望逐漸見底企穩。考慮到估值和有息負債率均處於歷史低位，我們維持對玖龍紙業的“買入”評級，和8.77~11.73港元的合理估值區間。
風險提示
1.行業供給側收縮幅度不及預期；2.原材料價格劇烈波動。
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