中國燃氣(00384.HK)：俄氣東入，東北天然氣用氣量潛力大，維持“買入”評級，目標價37.4港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：37.4港元
投資要點
東北三省用氣量低。2018年東北三省用氣量為141.56億立方米（包含大慶、吉林和盤錦油田自用氣40億方），黑龍江省用氣量為42.2億方，遼寧和吉林2018年用氣量一共為99.36億方。中國燃氣2018年在東北三省的銷氣量為20.4億方，其中黑龍江銷氣量為6億方，吉林和遼寧銷氣量為14.37億方。
黑龍江首先受益於俄氣的輸入。2019年12月1日俄氣將通過黑河進入國內，黑龍江省首先受益於俄氣的輸入，省內也採取了加大天然氣使用的配套政策，如加大城市管道建設、儲氣能力建設、鼓勵取暖用天然氣、工業煤改氣等。
中國燃氣在東北三省佈局早，投資規模大。中國燃氣在東北三省120個城鎮開展了燃氣管網投資建設，已獲得特許經營權範圍覆蓋人口5007萬人，已接駁城市管道燃氣用户2629萬人，尚有農村1317萬人，城市1061萬人需要開發。公司在城鎮燃氣、長輸管線、供熱、分佈式能源、合同能源管理、加氣站等項目的總投資額超過100億元。
居民取暖用氣及工業煤改氣成為黑龍江用氣量增長引擎，交通用氣也將持續增長，不會被電動車取代。隨着城市的發展，原先提供供暖業務的燃煤鍋爐廠變成了城市核心區域，地塊價值凸顯，但是其燃煤堆場緊挨着居民區，周邊的居民對周邊居住環境要求提高，燃煤鍋爐廠正常經營受到居民的抵抗，因此原先的燃煤鍋爐改成天然氣鍋爐具有可行性。隨着環保政策趨緊，環保標準也在逐步提高，工業企業的環保配套投入成本較大，也促使了工業企業進行煤改氣。
我們的觀點：中國燃氣（0384.HK）佈局黑龍江和遼寧時間較久，投資規模大，正在加大吉林省投入，隨着俄氣輸入，公司東北三省的項目將會受益，帶動公司在東北三省氣量的高速增長，我們維持公司的盈利預測，預計公司2020-2022財年營收分別為724.20、879.94和1030.48億港元，歸母淨利潤預測為100.62、121.32和139.99億港元，EPS分別為1.93、2.32和2.68港元，維持“買入”評級，目標價維持為37.4港元。
風險提示：俄氣進入的進度較慢，城鎮煤改氣進展緩慢，氣源成本大幅上漲。
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