新創建集團(00659.HK):業績遜預期但已見底,維持“買入”評級,目標價15.50港元
機構:招商銀行
評級:買入
目標價:15.50港元
新創建19財年業績偏軟,股東淨利同比下跌33%,較我們預期低10%。公司主要受到非經常性項目所拖累,我們預計核心經營收益將由20財年起恢復增長。新漸進股息政策以及公司專注核心業務發展長遠有助提升估值。在利率下行週期下,我們偏好以新創建作為防守型收息股。
利潤觸底將回升。19財年的應占經營溢利同比下跌10%,主要受人民幣貶值、公司出售北京首都機場(694HK)的股份、利率掉期合約出現非現金公允值虧損,以及香港會議展覽中心的新管理合約所拖累。18財年北京首都機場公允值變動的特殊收益,加劇了19財年公司淨利潤的跌幅。我們估計在20財年新創建核心業務的應占經營溢利將回復增長。一旦完成收購富通保險,公司的應占經營溢利及淨利潤將獲得提高。
新股息政策提供更高派息可見度。截至19財年上半年,新創建一直維持淨利潤50%的派息比率,因此派息受到一次性及非經營項目影響。現時開始新股息政策,目標是每年穩定增加或至少維持每股普通股息的港元價值。相信此新政策有助吸引尋求穩定收益的投資者。
專注於核心業務。新創建已重新分類其業務,“核心業務”包括道路、航空、建築,以及完成收購富通保險後的保險業務,其餘業務則被分類為“策略組合”。核心業務貢獻整體應占經營溢利的75%。新分類顯示公司將專注於長期增長可持續的業務。我們相信以後將有更多核心業務相關的收購和投資,同時策略組合將再有資產出售。長遠來説,專注核心業務有助減少公司估值折讓。
維持買入評級。我們相信新創建最壞時間已過,未來盈利將觸底回升、保險業務成新增長動力,以及公司推行漸進股息政策。我們下調新創建盈利和資產淨值預測,並下調目標價至15.50港元。重申買入。

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