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中金:內銀超額撥備有望釋放 料對招行(3968.HK)正面影響最大
格隆匯 09-27 15:16

中金髮表報告指,昨日(26日)中國司法部在網站上再次公佈《金融企業財務規則(徵求意見稿)》及其起草説明。該行認為,修改後財務規則正式發時間漸進,由此部分銀行超額撥備有望釋放。

中金指,上市銀行中,今年上半年寧波銀行(002142.SZ)撥備覆蓋率超過450%,南京銀行(601009.SH)、郵儲銀行(01658.HK)、招行(03968.HK)、上海銀行(601229.SH)超過300%。意見稿原文表述,「對於超過監管要求2倍以上,應視為存在隱藏利潤的傾向」,市場上存在300%和450%兩種解讀,待財政部最終確認。此外,對於銀行不良覆蓋率的監管要求,也有150%和120%的不同解讀。

該行認為,超額撥備可能通過提高分紅或加嚴不良認定這兩種方式進行消化(或兩者結合)。第一種方式為降低計算撥備覆蓋率的分子及不良貸款準備金,將超額部分轉入淨資產中未分配利潤科目,並進行現金分配。第二種方式為增加計算撥備覆蓋率的分母及不良餘額,即通過加快不良暴露或加嚴不良認定,例如減少展期,或者將更多的逾期貸款和關注類貸款計入不良,增加不良貸款餘額。

該行又指,市場對於分紅率提高的可行性存在疑慮,主要來自於資本充足率和潛在不良壓力。目前市場普遍認為宏觀經濟存在較高的不確定性,銀行目前的資本金對於潛在的真實的不良資產是否充足亦有爭議。需要注意的是,本徵求意見稿僅對存在超額撥備的銀行有所影響,該類銀行數量有限,其資產質量在同業中領先。

中金認為,對招行正面影響最大。目前上市銀行中,5間銀行的不良覆蓋率超過300%。其中投資者對招商和寧波的資產質量披露和分類的信心最為充足,且這兩家銀行的盈利能力和資本內生能力也最為強勁。考慮到寧波銀行的超額資本充足率有限(核心一級資本充足率較監管最低要求7.5%高1.7個百分點),若徵求意見稿上述條款最終獲得通過,核心一級資本充足率較高的招行(較7.5%高4.3個百分點)提高分紅比例的概率最高。

該行給予招行H股目標價51.3港元,評級“跑贏同業”。

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