交銀國際:新電價機制加速市場放開 火電股價短期承壓
國務院常務會議提出,從明年1月1日起,將從煤電聯動機制轉變為“基準價+上下浮動”的市場化機制。其中,基準價維持各地現行的燃煤發電標杆電價,浮動範圍原則上,上浮不超過10%,下浮不超過15%。同時為了確保一般工商業用户降低經營性成本,2020年電價暫時不準上浮。居民、農業等民生用電繼續執行現行目錄電價,確保穩定。
交銀國際發表報告指出,新的定價機制和現行的市場化電量交易機制基本一致,其主要的目的在於電力市場化的全面放開。新的電價形成機制對已經存在的市場電電量部分影響較小,此前未參與市場電交易的部分電價將會明顯下調。
從中長期來看,隨着電力市場的全面放開,5大火電龍頭受規模效應的影響,市場佔有率將進一步上升,且盈利下滑的可能性較小。但短期看,火電企業2020年盈利的上行空間有限。
此外,本次國務院會議並未提及對新能源市場電交易的安排,維持原有的“火電標杆電價+新能源補貼”的定價機制。報告認為,短期內這有利於新能源裝機佔比較多的火電公司,如華潤電力(0836.HK)、中國電力(2380.HK)以及華電國際(1071.HK)。
*新政對華潤電力、中國電力的影響有限*
根據目前對5家火電公司的預測,到2019年底直供電佔比已達50%左右,2020年5家公司的市場電佔比將進一步提升到60-70%。2019年市場電較其基準上網電價的折讓在5-8%之間,2020年折價較2019年有稍許上浮。目前覆蓋的5家火電公司中,華潤電力和中國電力的直供電佔比已經達到50%,政策的出台對這兩家公司的影響有限。
估計火電行業短期表現可能承壓;維持看好中國電力和華電國際,總體來看,此次出台的政策對火電企業長期偏中性。但預計受市場情緒影響,火電企業短期的股價表現或有承壓的可能。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.