花旗:料財政部新規對內銀盈利提振有限 招行(3968.HK)等是主要受益者
中國財政部發布徵求意見稿,要求金融企業將超提準備金部分還原成未分配利潤進行分配。
花旗發表報告表示,中國財政部新規對銀行業盈利的影響可能有限,市場對於短期業績提振或貸款增長加快的預期可能過於樂觀。報告表示,財政部新規旨在提高銀行分紅及財政部的收入,不過與銀保監會推動銀行逆週期撥備的政策導向相反。在宏觀環境面臨挑戰的情況下,強逼銀行釋放撥備沒有太大意義,因為這可能令其更容易受到信貸週期波動的影響。更有可能出現的情況是,銀保監會和銀行可能會繞過財政部的要求,這會帶來不良貸款形成率和不良貸款餘額在2019年下半年上升、撥備覆蓋率下降。
報告又指,新規利好不良貸款撥備覆蓋率高的銀行,假設撥備覆蓋率超過300%的部分在2019年被一次性釋放,預計該行所覆蓋的17家銀行中,只有5家會受益,其中招商銀行(3968.HK)和寧波銀行(002142.SZ)是主要受益者。
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